Weather Lookup

Key Messages

Issued at 1229 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

- hot conditions with above average temperatures in the 90S are expected through the end of the week. Temperatures are favored to return closer to normal through next week.

- after mostly dry thursday and friday, a pattern change could provide more rain chances this weekend into next week.

Short Term

(this evening through thursday night) issued at 1229 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

In the wake of yesterday's weak cold front, lingering cloud cover has led to much of the western panhandles being noticeably cooler this afternoon, while eastern areas are still hot in the 90S. Looking at the big picture, high pressure is situated over the SE conus, while a closed low sits atop the northern coast of california. Southwest flow aloft in between these features has placed large scale subsidence over the panhandles today. High temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow (upper 80S to upper 90S), with breezy 15-25 MPH southwest winds gusting up to 35 MPH (highest winds across the NW panhandles). The vast majority of the cwa will remain rain free over the next 48 hrs, especially tomorrow when dry mid-level air filters in. An exception to this dry stretch would be the far western panhandles this evening, where 10-20% chances exist to get clipped by showers/weak storms moving south to north across eastern new mexico.

Harrel

Long Term

(friday through next tuesday) issued at 1229 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

Approaching the weekend into next week, our synoptic pattern appears far more active, although we will still end the week rather warm in the 90S. The 500mb closed low currently meandering along the western seaboard, is progged to eventually eject eastward over the north-central great plains early next week. As it does so, the base of the trough axis should be draped atop the southern high plains this weekend. Once it departs early next week, model agreement drastically devolves regarding synoptic progression. Current thinking is that another low pressure system to our west and ridging to our south will place southwest flow or weak ridging atop the region. Under either scenario, temperatures would still be warm with some locations staying in the 90S, but are expected to gradually decrease closer to seasonal averages in the 80S. Low precipitation chances return almost daily thanks to anomalously high moisture content (peaking mon-wed), but current nbm probabilities may be too "gung ho" on forecasting widespread rain. It is far more likely under the anticipated synoptic regime to have convection remain more isolated or scattered any given day.

Focusing on this weekend, several environmental parameters including lift and moisture (pwats well above climatological normals) should be favorable for rain/storms across portions of the panhandles. Even though these appear to be lined up favorably with the trough arrival, there could be a few wrenches thrown in the gears that limit the spatial extent of better rainfall. There is potential for localized dry slots, poorly timed disturbances, and subtle upper level subsidence that could all limit rain chances for much of the forecast area both days. With all that in consideration, highest confidence in storms is mostly confined to the southern & eastern panhandles saturday-saturday night (30-50% pops). Northwest areas have the lowest likelihood of rain, while central areas including amarillo could truly go either way. Sunday could present another rain opportunity for more of the region, but many of the aforementioned limiting factors could be in play once again (20-40% pops favoring the east).

Obviously there is still plenty of time for the small details to change and potentially align favorably for more of the forecast area to get rain this weekend into next week. Unfortunately though, there are too many variables that are degrading forecast confidence rather than building it at this time. But if we can take full advantage of the moisture available during this time frame, beneficial rainfall is certainly within the realm of possibility for portions of the region.

Harrel

Aviation

(18Z tafs) issued at 1229 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 KTS with slightly higher gusts at times. There is a less than 20% chance for showers or weak storms near kdht this evening after 00Z, but impacts at the terminal are unlikely.

Harrel