Radar — KFFC
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: West Dougherty Street (Secondary)
- a few storms will linger across the metro area, before rain comes to an end around sunrise.
- thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with threats being strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning across portions of central georgia.
- heat impacts will be felt again across portions of central georgia this afternoon. A heat advisory will go into effect this afternoon as heat indices climb above 105.
(this afternoon through wednesday) issued at 248 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
Folks, it's warm out there. Heat indices are into the triple digits across much of north and central georgia this afternoon with the atl airport sitting at a just ~lovely~ 105 f heat index as of this writing. Temperatures are in the 90S and dewpoints are in the 70S. The good news up front is that some relief from the heat is on the way, though it will take a day or two to filter into the area. The only other things of note is that things likely look a little hazy up above - wildfire smoke from the pacific NW is filtering around the ridge and being carried by the jet over US. Another burst of this is expected to move in later tonight per "smoke allowing" convective guidance, though again this should mostly remain well above US and not impact US on the ground.
Other weather story we are monitoring is convective chances later tonight. I honestly wish i could say we had a bit more certainty given we are only a few hours from when storms may push in, but model guidance remains boom or bust, with more bust than boom. Aloft we have a shortwave embedded in the jet that has given US a nice jet streak within the NW flow around the large ridge over the central conus. Front associated with this has already started to fire some convection in ky and wv that -should- be the main player for US later tonight. These storms are expected to congeal into a line of storms that pushes south and eventually southeast, moving into the area from nc/tn after accelerating ahead of the frontal boundary. Where the big uncertainty begins is as it approaches the state - many cams completely dissipate the system, in some cases before it even reaches the border. Others hold it together briefly into the state but have it quickly fall apart after that. This is certainly possible, given the system should outrun both forcing and better SHEAR and run into our area after sunset, meaning surface based parcels will be more challenging to get going. However, there are some biases here to consider, especially with over mixing of moisture, which could be having an outsized impact on the convective coverage of these models. The other side of the coin is the refs (rrfs ensemble), which does show ~40% of members holding storms together into north georgia, and keeping even 20-30% chances into the atlanta metro.
So, with all that said, the current forecast leans towards that 30- 40% chance of seeing something across northern georgia. Given we will still have ~3000 j/kg of instability to work with ahead of the line well into the overnight hours, storms may remain vigorous with some isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A slight risk remains in effect for NE ga with a marginal risk extending into the metro and the rest of N ga.
Relatively cooler and drier air is expected to begin filtering into northern georgia by early morning tomorrow. The diurnal cycle will slow down the progression of the front into the area through the afternoon, so looks like portions of central georgia will have to wait another day to get relief from the heat. While heat indices should "only" reach into the 90S across north georgia and the metro on wednesday, they will go soaring once again into the triple digits across portions of central georgia. Heat advisories will likely be needed once again, with issuance later tonight after the current advisories expire. Some afternoon thunderstorms will be possible across central georgia during the afternoon ahead of the stalled outflow boundary from tonight's system. This could put a damper on the worst of the heat, especially if coverage is more than expected.
(thursday morning through next monday) issued at 248 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
By wed night the cold front that moved into the area in the short term will still be moving south through the state moving into south ga/N fl by thu morning. This boundary stalls near the fl/ga border but it does usher in some drier air which should keep north and central ga precipitation free through friday night. Temps are not expected to cool to much thu/fri with high temps still expected in the upper 80S to middle 90S but the apparent t (feels like temps) will be much lower.
By sat the next frontal boundary moving east out of the lower to mid ms river valley moves into W ga just before daybreak. The main low pressure center moves east into western ky at the same time. With the close proximity of the low center to NW ga this frontal boundary should stay fairly organized as it moves into the region. The current forecast models show this front stalling across E/SE ga and the carolinas through tues keeping the area in moist S to SW flow through day 7. This will keep precip chances elevated through day 7.
(06Z tafs) issued at 132 AM EDT wed jul 29 2026
The heaviest of the tsra has come to an end for atl. Some lingering obs are possible until 08Z before the threat comes to an end. Conditions will rapidly improve through the rest of the overnight hours. Cu field expected after 15Z but conditions will remain VFR. Winds will be out of the NW at 5-10KTS.
//atl confidence...06Z update...
High on all elements.
Vaughn
Athens 69 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 atlanta 72 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 blairsville 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 cartersville 68 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 columbus 74 95 71 95 / 20 10 0 0 gainesville 68 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 macon 73 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 rome 68 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 peachtree city 70 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 vidalia 74 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 10