Weather Lookup

What Has Changed

A few light showers are possible today in the csra. Aviation updated for 06Z issuance.

Key Messages

- 1. Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

Discussion

Key message 1: outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

Currently, an upper shortwave is moving through the gulf states. A few light showers have developed in response to this shortwave and are moving to the northeast. Meanwhile, a surface high continues to edge its way into the region, keeping relatively dry air in place despite the cloud cover. The rain showers are struggling to overcome the dry air over the forecast area at the moment, but observations indicate moistening just west of the area. Therefore, some of these light showers could move into the csra during the early morning hours and have added slight chance of light showers to that area. Chances for light showers exist then for the mid morning to afternoon hours as additional activity moves near the area. Locations outside of the csra are are expected to remain dry today.

This shortwave is forecast to move eastward and flatten out, allowing for dry days through midweek. Out west, a deeper trough moving into the western conus is forecast to eject eastward through most of the week, slowing as it reaches the central conus. Additionally, a surface low and attendant front are forecast to develop in response to the trough. As a result, increased moisture is anticipated to move into the area, leading to higher chances for showers and thunderstorms for mid to late week. That said, there remains noticeable differences between models and model runs, suggesting higher uncertainty in details of the evolution of the system as it moves toward the area.

Aviation — 06Z Sunday Through Thursday

VFR conditions are expected through the taf forecast period.

Widespread cirrus clouds continue moving across the region, and these clouds should remain in place through the forecast period. Although low levels remain dry, with dewpoints the 40S, there is some moisture moving northward in the mid levels. This is indicated by some light radar returns showing up across the region south and west of the csra. Low levels remain dry enough that majority of this moisture/rain is expected to evaporate as it falls and moves into the area. However a brief light sprinkle can not be rule out, along with a few lower mid level clouds at ags/dnl. Have included a tempo for 6sm -ra, although it would be more like a sprinkle or two. Left mention of this activity out of all other tafs at this time.

Winds should stay up overnight from the northeast around 5 to 7 knots before picking up to around 10 knots after sunrise with intermittent gusts up to 20 knots into the afternoon. With the winds and clouds, fog will not be an issue this morning.

Extended aviation outlook...low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on tuesday.