Radar — KGRK
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: Congress Avenue (Primary)
Updated at 200 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
- low rain chances generally along and east of i-35 thursday.
- temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the period.
(tonight through thursday night) issued at 200 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Early afternoon trends compared to 24 hours ago show temperatures are running a little lower, while humidity trends are a little higher. We did make some minor changes to the forecast earlier, but for the most part, forecast highs are on track today. Southeast to east winds remain intact tonight leading to warm overnight lows along with enough moisture to promote low cloud development for most areas into thursday morning. An increase in moisture on thursday along with daytime heating should still help generate some afternoon and evening convection for areas generally along and east of i-35. The hi-res models tend to show a little less coverage vs. Model runs from yesterday, so will keep rain chances in the 20-50% range with the coastal plains favored. The heat and humidity will boost some isolated afternoon heat index values near 108 degrees in the coastal plains. At this time, due to the limited coverage and brief nature, we will hold off on a heat advisory at this time. Most areas remain dry thursday night into friday morning. However, some increased moisture from the coastal plains westward into the rio grande plains south of del rio could aid in the development of isolated convection.
(friday through next wednesday) issued at 200 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Strong high pressure in the mid and upper levels will build into the region on friday and remain in place through the upcoming weekend. Although this area of high pressure is expected to weaken during the weekend, we still expect to see well above normal temperatures along with dry weather for most of the region. The exception will be near the coastal plains on saturday as the seabreeze may aid in some afternoon showers or storms. In addition, the edge of monsoonal moisture may bring a stray shower or storm to far northwestern val verde county on sunday.
For early next week high pressure remains in place, but does continue to slowly weaken, while a fairly persistent area of broad low pressure remains over the northern gulf. Developing southwest flow aloft and marginal moisture levels may yield some low rain chances early next week. However, rainfall amounts would likely remain very low. In addition, above normal warmth will persist well into early next week.
(18Z tafs) issued at 1200 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
VFR flight conditions prevail from this afternoon into tonight with mostly fair weather cumulus and increasing high level cloud cover. A region of low clouds then establish closer to sunrise and could result in some MVFR ceilings for a time at the san antonio terminals (ksat and kssf). Low clouds may approach kdrt mid-morning but will elect to keep the areal coverage in the scattered range for now. VFR conditions return to all the area sites by midday. The coastal plains is most favored for any isolated to scattered showers and storm activity for this afternoon and thursday afternoon. We'll monitor if any activity is able to approach the i-35 corridor and the areal terminals but confidence is too low to insert within the taf package during this time. East-southeasterly breezes trend into this evening with gusts at times in excess of 20 KTS with speeds then diminishing after midnight. Winds then turn more easterly and increase slightly into and through thursday morning.
Austin camp mabry 78 100 76 99 / 0 20 10 0 austin bergstrom intl airport 76 99 75 99 / 0 20 10 0 new braunfels muni airport 75 98 74 98 / 0 20 20 10 burnet muni airport 74 97 73 95 / 0 10 10 0 del rio intl airport 77 99 77 97 / 0 0 10 10 georgetown muni airport 77 99 75 98 / 0 10 10 0 hondo muni airport 74 98 74 97 / 0 10 20 10 san marcos muni airport 75 99 73 98 / 0 20 20 0 la grange - fayette regional 77 98 75 98 / 0 20 10 0 san antonio intl airport 77 98 77 97 / 10 20 20 10 stinson muni airport 77 100 76 99 / 10 20 20 10