Weather Lookup

Key Messages

- scattered rain showers taper off this afternoon. Patchy drizzle develops tonight.

- widespread soaking rain monday into tuesday. Amounts of 1-2" expected, approaching 3" across west-central minnesota

Discussion

Issued at 111 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

Scattered rain showers continue to spread northwards into central minnesota & western wisconsin this afternoon. These showers will begin to wane as the low level warm advection diminishes through the day, expect rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25" wherever showers occur. We looks to be dry, but damp, for trick or treaters this evening with areas of drizzle then developing late tonight & through the overnight hours. Gloomy skies look to stick around through sunday with little change in the airmass expected to scatter out the clouds, however a few peeks of sunshine looks possible later in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60S despite the clouds, as southerly winds & warm advection strengthen through the day.

The main weather of note this week comes monday into tuesday when a deep trough digs over the intermountain west & spins up a surface low tracking from the central plains into the upper midwest. Legacy physical models vary somewhat on the track of the surface low, but the ai GFS & ECMWF solutions have remained consistent with the low tracking directly over our area from eastern sd into lake superior. This would place the favored location for the heaviest rain across the eastern dakotas into west-central minnesota, a solution well-supported by the ai & physical-based ECMWF ensembles. This will be a very wet system for early november with near-record precipitable, helping to generate a widespread soaking rain event for the region from monday morning through at least tuesday morning. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected across the entirety of minnesota & western wisconsin, with the best chances for 2-3" occurring across west-central minnesota. Most of this rain will fall within a few hours monday morning & afternoon, but we're not expecting convective rainfall rates capable of any flash flooding. Heading into tuesday, the system does slow down & linger over the upper midwest although models remain spread on how long the light rain in the wrap-around region sticks around. Ai solutions we could have lingering showers all the way into thursday, although additional rainfall amounts late tuesday into thursday will only be on the order of 0.25-0.5". Would be a great snowstorm in another november, but we'll settle for continuing to chip away at our precipitation deficit for 2026.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the upper 50S to low 60S through the heaviest rain monday afternoon, then we'll see several days of classic november weather arrive as a colder airmass settles over the region behind the system. Highs in the mid to upper 40S will prevail into the weekend, along with warmer lows in the upper 30S to low 40S as clouds looks to stick around the the week. Conditions look dry well into next week once we clear out the lingering showers wednesday-thursday.

Aviation — 06Z Tafs Through 12Z Monday

Issued at 1145 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026

Went with a far more pessimistic category forecast for stc/axn with dense fog setting up over central mn, with lesser amounts of fog for the other locations. A pocket of clearing via satellite has allowed some patchy fog to build over southern sites, however there is also enough stratus lingering around to keep it from become denser. Winds are mainly 140-170 at or below 7KTS with most sites below 5KTS, meaning the fog will be slow to dissipate until they pick up after 16Z. A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR is expected through 16-18Z at which point we should lift and scatter out enough to push most sites to VFR, before cigs start to drop again late in the period ahead of our next round of ra/shra that will move in on monday.

Kmsp...went with a VFR forecast to start with the main MVFR impact being patchy fog underneath a gap in the stratus that is present this morning. Forecast confidence is pretty low however as the stratus underneath the upper level clouds appears to be moving back towards the terminal, which would stop fog chances but also bring a chance for MVFR cigs to return. For now, the forecast favors the fog route for category impacts as opposed to cig.

/outlook for kmsp/ mon...ra/IFR likely. Wind SE 15-20g30KTS. Tue...ra/IFR. Wind W 10-15KTS. Wed...chc MVFR/-shra. Wind NW 5-10KTS.