Radar — KFSD
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
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- thunderstorms should increase in coverage this afternoon into tonight. Locally heavy rain, possibly as high as 4-5 inches, will be the main concern. A secondary concern will be hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 65 MPH.
- while many locations will receive a beneficial half an inch to inch and a half of rainfall, the higher amounts could lead to localized flash flooding in urban and flood prone areas.
- dry conditions and seasonable temperatures return for the weekend.
Issued at 327 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
An mcs in central sd will continue to weaken through the morning as it encounters more stable air in eastern sd. Deep layer SHEAR is also fairly weak and not supportive of a continuing mcs. However, some weak elevated instability could produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the morning. There is pretty low confidence in the location and development however.
The somewhat higher confidence showers and thunderstorms will come this afternoon into the evening as low pressure deepens over the area. Initially storms should develop closer to central sd where the deeper instability and incoming upper level low pressure come together. Some of the latest model runs suggest that some of this development could take place as early as noon-2PM, with the activity progressing southeast through the afternoon into the evening. Overall SHEAR and instability are very marginal so only isolated severe weather will be possible. Taller skinny CAPE with values around 1500 j/kg are expected while deep layer SHEAR likely only climbs to around 30 knots. This scenario should support hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 65 MPH.
The more likely concern with this set up is heavy rainfall. With the freezing level around 14000 feet, PWAT values likely around 1.75" and, barring an outflow dominant mcs developing, fairly slow storm motion is expected. This will likely lead to very efficient rainfall with amounts around 2" per hour. If everything come together, some locations could receive 4-5" of rain, which could cause some localized flash flooding, especially if this rain falls over populated locations.
Luckily ground water concerns are minor so it will take some of these higher amounts to bring flood and flash flood concerns, so for now believe this will remain fairly localized.
Issued at 241 PM CDT wed jul 29 2026
Lines of cumulus clouds have developed near and south of the missouri river valley this afternoon. Without much upper level support to get storms going, we will need to rely on spots reaching convective temperatures to get storms to initiate. According to soundings, this will be around 95 degrees or so. Chances for storm development with this is low, but either way severe weather is unlikely given weak mid level lapse rates and weak SHEAR. However, can't rule out a wind gust up to 55 MPH in any collapsing thunderstorm if they even develop in our area in the first place. Otherwise another very warm and humid afternoon continues, with heat indices pushing 100 degrees at times especially west of i-29 into the sioux city metro. Doesn't look like these 100 degree heat indices will be too widespread and dew points do look to drop off a bit more through the afternoon, so did continue to hold off on any heat headlines. However, it's still important to be hydrated and take some breaks when working or playing outdoors this afternoon!
Showers and storms over western south dakota will be knocking on south-central south dakota's door by daybreak thursday; however, this activity will likely be weakening as it moves into the area. Additional showers and storms will likely develop as an upper level wave moves across the area and will likely have enough with it to break the cap in the fairly weakly capped environment. This morning activity is unlikely to be severe and should help limit full destabilization from occurring before any afternoon/evening activity develops. However, we will still likely see a line of stronger thunderstorms develop in the afternoon over central south dakota and move southeastward across the area through the evening hours associated with a cool front. 65 MPH winds and quarter sized hail will be the main threat with this afternoon/evening activity.
There is an alternate, but less likely scenario where we don't get much if any rainfall during the thursday morning time frame due to a stronger than expected cap, allowing for more destabilization to occur. In this scenario, like shown in the 29.12Z HRRR, a stronger line/mcs would develop in the afternoon and evening and bring wind gusts potentially up to around 65 MPH. Trends will be monitored, so keep up to date with the latest forecast. A secondary wave and an upper level low will close off near the area thursday night into early friday morning, likely keeping general showers and thunderstorms continuing into the night. This will also lead to some flash flooding concerns thursday afternoon into the night. Wet grounds from morning showers/storms will combine with the stronger afternoon storms and overnight storms to lead to some flash flooding concerns mainly in urban areas that see multiple thunderstorms. Rainfall totals through thursday night/early friday morning will be around a half an inch to 1.5", but localized amounts exceeding 4+ inches will be possible. Make sure to stay weather aware and keep up to date with the latest forecast!
After this next storm system passes, an upper level ridge will build into the area and help to keep US dry. And with northerly flow in place, high temperatures for friday and saturday will be a lot more pleasant with some areas especially on friday having highs staying only in the 70S! Southerly flow returns again by sunday, so we should start to see another warm up, though we should stay below heat advisory criteria even as highs warm back up to the middle 80S to lower 90S. The next appreciable rain chances will return monday night into tuesday as cold front moves into the area. It looks like there may be enough instability and SHEAR for at least some severe threat, but uncertainty remains high at this time.
Issued at 1229 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
Thunderstorms continue to slowly progress eastward across central and south central south dakota. Think the storms will continue to weaken with eastward extent. That said, think khon has a chance for seeing these showers and storms so have included a prob30 group in their taf. The storms look to weaken to just showers through the morning hours tomorrow. At the same time, latest satellite imagery shows a small area of IFR stratus that has developed across parts of south central nebraska. Think this area of stratus will expand through the night and push northwards. Have added MVFR stratus to ksux's taf but trends in stratus will be closely monitored through the night. While some showers may persist into the afternoon hours tomorrow, another round of thunderstorms looks to develop during the afternoon and persist through the rest of the period. How the storms may track remains a bit uncertain, but have added prob30 groups to all taf sites for the last 6 hours of the period to account for this uncertainty. Additional MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings will also finish out the taf period.