Radar — KFSD
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
Log in to save this location.
Nearest monitored road: US-14 (Primary)
- areas of light showers west of highway 81 will continue overnight and will gradually taper off before daybreak.
- there is a 60-70% probability that very low stratus and areas of patchy fog could form early sunday morning. For areas east of highway 81 visibility may fall to 2 miles or less at times. Fog and low stratus linger into the mid-to-late morning.
- periods of light to moderate rain will lift through the area from sunday night into monday. Ensemble guidance continues shows moderate to high confidence in 1 inch amounts west of i-29. Localized ponding will be possible in low-lying spots.
- breezy to gusty winds return on monday and tuesday with gusts between 30-40 MPH expected at times. Locally higher gusts will be possible across southcentral sd. An active pattern continues tuesday and wednesday.
Issued at 858 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Very light showers are ongoing west of highway 81 as of this update issuance. Most showers should taper off before day break but a few stubborn light sprinkles may hang on through sunday morning along the james river valley. (less than a 20% probability) accumulation will be only a trace to a hundredth or two. Very low stratus and patchy fog could impact visibilities early sunday morning. Ensemble guidance indicates a moderate probability (60-70%) of visibility falling to 2 miles or less at times. Especially for areas east of highway 81. Low stratus and fog will linger into the mid to late morning before improving.
The remainder of the day sunday should be dry and breezy with southerly winds gusting 20-25 MPH. Some gusts to 30 MPH are possible over central south dakota. Highs will be warm in the low to mid 60S. Ample moisture and warm air will advect in through the low-to-mid levels. As a result low stratus will be the story for the next couple of days as a more active weather pattern plays out. This is well described in the discussion below. As for this forecast period, the only changes were to refine pops and timing of precipitation onset.
Issued at 215 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Currents & tonight: taking a look across the area, the dreary and wet conditions persists as lingering showers gradually lifting through the highway-14 corridor this afternoon and areas of fog continue to erode. While a brief lull in activity could develop through the late afternoon hours, short-range guidance continues to show a few additional showers developing by early evening mainly west of highway-81 as another wave swings through. Any resulting accumulations would be light at best. Lastly, with overcast skies likely continuing through the evening hours; decided to slightly increased overnight lows by blending in some of the consshort resulting in temperatures in the low to mid 50S with the warmest conditions along our river valleys.
Sunday-tuesday: not many forecast changes expected into sunday as increasing warm air advection (waa) aloft keeps US locked into the overcast and dreary conditions for most of the day. While most areas should remain dry during the day, a few durnally-driven sprinkles to light showers could develop in the lower cloud bases during the afternoon with limited accumulations. From here, the focus continues to be on the increased rain chances from sunday night into monday. Looking aloft, most of our rain chances (70%-100%) will be in response to a developing colorado low lifting from the nebraska panhandle into central and eastern sodak throughout the day. Widespread rain is expected as increase lift in the warm air advective wing leads to pockets of light to moderate rain for the first half of the day. From here, we'll likely lose mid-level saturation during the afternoon hours as the dry slot progresses through the area. With this in mind, any lingering activity will begin to dissipate as it lifts northeastwards.
A few isolated thunderstorms can't be completely rule out across northwestern ia giving the low CAPE/high SHEAR environment and increased lift ahead of the triple point. However, confidence continues to decrease in any stronger activity mainly due to afternoon development across eastern nebraska and northwestern missouri effectively cutting off our moisture pool. Otherwise, additional precipitation chances will return from monday night into tuesday morning as the cold front swings through. Shifting gears to amounts, ensemble guidance continues to show moderate to high confidence (60%-80%) in at least 1 inch of QPF mainly along and west of i-29 with lesser amounts (0.50" of an inch or less) elsewhere. With trends continue to pull the highest amounts towards central sd with the deformation zone/warm-front, wouldn't be surprised if QPF amounts continue to trend downwards and northwestwards moving forward especially as more short-range guidance gets ingested into the nbm QPF. Nonetheless, our flash flood risk continues to look low with mainly concern being localized ponding in low-lying areas. Lastly, with a tightening spg on both monday and tuesday; expect surface winds to strengthen with gust between 30-40 MPH expected on both day.
Wednesday onwards: heading into the extended period, an active pattern continues aloft with medium-range guidance struggling to resolve the location of the upper-level low. While confidence is low, can't rule out some wrap around showers throughout the day on wednesday especially east of i-29. Quieter conditions will return by thursday as mid-level ridging progresses through the area. This along with the return mid-level warm air advection (waa) should lead to slightly warmer temperatures heading into the weekend with highs increase from the low to mid 50S by wednesday into the low to mid 60S by thursday.
Issued at 1038 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Stratus will continue to thicken and lower through the overnight. Mostly VFR ceilings will degrade down to widespread MVFR as a result. In addition, ensemble guidance continues to indicate a 60- 70% probability of patchy fog development east of highway 81. The combination of low stratus and fog could result in visibility dropping to 2 miles or less at times. Stratus and fog will be slow to lift sunday morning and may hang around into the late morning. Ceilings will improve as fog lifts but will likely remain mostly MVFR. Another round of showers and thunderstorms push in from the southwest near the end of the period.
Current radar shows light echos along and east of the james river valley. These will move north through the overnight, dissipating from south to north a few hours before daybreak. Accumulation will be very light, a trace to a couple hundredths. Southerly winds will remain on the breezy side now through the overnight. Gusts of 15-20 KTS are expected for areas west of i-29, with gusts of 15 KTS or less to the east. Winds will increase with daytime heating with widespread afternoon gusts of 15-25 KTS. Strongest winds expected over central south dakota. Winds will remain breezy through the end of the period.