Weather

What Has Changed

As of 124 PM EST sunday...

Confidence has increased slightly in light rain showers tuesday and tuesday night. Confidence also continues to increase in warm temperatures on wednesday, and highs across the st. Lawrence valley of new york are expected to reach or surpass daily records.

Key Messages

As of 124 PM EST sunday...

1. Temperatures increase this week, and there is the potential for some rain showers tuesday and tuesday night.

2. A late week cold front will bring several days of rain

Discussion

As of 124 PM EST sunday...

Key message 1: high 1034 mb pressure centered over the northeast this afternoon will shift southeastward over to the mid atlantic coast, drifting offshore over the next few days. This will turn flow more southerly to southwesterly across northern new york and vermont, resulting in above average temperatures this week. Highs monday and tuesday afternoons will be widespread 60S. Lows fall only into the 40S tonight and monday night. A tilted mid to upper level ridge will be positioned to our west through about tuesday, moving eastwards this week. Depending on the positioning of an upper level vort max and surface boundaries, there could be just enough forcing and lift to produce some clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border and on high terrain on tuesday and tuesday night. The odd rain shower is possible monday night in the northeast kingdom, but generally best convergence is north of the border at this time. Deterministic model solutions continue to vary widely on the position of these features, so uncertainty remains relatively high, even on tuesday and tuesday night. Highest chance of some measurable precipitation looks to be tuesday afternoon and evening with 35-55% chance of rain for about the northern half of the forecast area, lower chances south. Regardless, temperatures continue to look warm for this time of year heading into mid and late week with highs likely reaching the upper 60S and lower 70S by wednesday afternoon as southerly to southwesterly winds advect in even more warmth and 925 mb level temps climb to 11-16 c. Lows are expected to fall into the mid 40S to mid 50S tuesday and wednesday nights.

Key message 2: confidence continues to increase that a relatively strong low pressure and associated cold front will sweep through northern new york and vermont by the end of the week. A closed low will be over the upper great lakes by wednesday. While timing is still a bit uncertain, we should see channeled flow keeping winds over lake champlain gusting to near 30MPH on thursday with rain overtaking the cwa on friday ahead of the low. As the cold front sweeps through, we'll see high temperatures drop from the upper 60S thursday down to the upper 40S by saturday. A number of model solutions have the system interacting with another low off the atlantic seaboard, causing the low to partially cutoff from the main flow and allowing a slight chance of rain to persist through next sunday.

Aviation — 06Z Monday Through Friday

Through 06Z tuesday...VFR will continue. A thin cloud deck around 6000 feet agl has developed with all but rut currently seeing these ceilings. Expectations are for these clouds to scatter after sunrise but with additional higher clouds spilling in from the northwest for the remainder of the period. A non- zero chance of showers skirting the international border is not enough to bring mention of rain in taf at this time to efk, where conditions would remain VFR with only light precipitation.

Winds will be somewhat erratic through 12Z, with some sites seeing a modest low level jet occasionally gust to the surface. At sites like pbg and efk, winds will be largely be decoupled from the surface, leading to westerly llws through about 14Z. Otherwise, terrain driven winds overnight will be followed by S/SW winds mainly 6-12 KT, and then again subsiding somewhat towards 00Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance shra. Tuesday night: VFR. Chance shra. Wednesday: VFR. No sig wx. Wednesday night: VFR. No sig wx. Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely ra. Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely ra. Friday: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance ra.