Radar — KDIX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: Broadway (Primary)
Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches have been cancelled.
1. Flash flooding remains possible tonight, but the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk has generally declined.
2. There will be lingering chances for some showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area for thursday and friday however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.
Key message 1... Flash flooding remains possible tonight, but the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk has generally declined.
Instability has waned this evening, and the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk has waned considerably with it. Therefore, both watches have been cancelled. While a random stronger cell isn't impossible over the next few hours, the risk has declined considerably.
The flood watch remains up for the area and several flash flood warnings remain in effect. When all is said and done, the updated QPF forecast through wednesday is around 2 to 4 inches of rain north of i-78, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. As is usual in summer convective setups, locally higher amounts are possible. Href max in northern new jersey has highly localized amounts up to 8" through wednesday. Have multiple ways to receive any flood alerts.
As low pressure meanders, another front will come through on wednesday, capable of producing some heavy downpours yet again for the northern third of the region. This will move over some more urbanized areas in north jersey that should get a decent amount of rainfall today, potentially causing more problems. While mainstem river flooding is not currently forecast, some smaller creeks and streams within the passaic and raritan basins could see some rises that result in flooding.
Key message 2...there will be lingering chances for some showers and thunderstorms across portions of the area for thursday and friday however severe weather and flash flooding is not expected.
Low pressure and its associated upper level trough will be slow to depart to our east through the course of thursday and friday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, especially for thursday. For thursday, forecast models continue to depict a closed circulation at 500mb slowly drifting east through new england. Along the backside of this feature, some showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect the area with the highest pops (around 60 percent) for portions of central and nj. In terms of timing, it should be mainly focused around the afternoon into the early evening period coincident with peak heating. Generally expect highs ranging from the middle to upper 70S north to the low to mid 80S south.
For friday, the system will continue to pull farther away so by and large it should be a partly to mostly sunny day with slightly warm temperatures compared to thursday. However still can't rule out some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon mainly over nj into portion of eastern pa (mainly north of philly). Pops though are only around 20 percent.
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Tonight...mostly VFR early this evening but then primarily MVFR/IFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms. The rains will diminish by 04Z most sites. After that, low clouds and fog possible thru the night. Low confid overall.
Wednesday... Low clouds may linger across nj and delaware early but then improvement to VFR at most sites by mid/late morning. Scattered showers/tstms for the afternoon across nj.de. Low/medium confid. Outlook...
Wednesday night through thursday...primarily VFR though an unsettled pattern will result in some restrictions with showers, low clouds, and isolated thunderstorms, especially from kphl on north. The best chances for any showers/storms will be in the afternoon into the early evening periods.
Thursday night through saturday...VFR. No significant weather.
Sunday...mainly VFR though with some chances for showers/storms returning by the afternoon into the evening can't rule out some restrictions.
Small craft advisory remains up for all ocean zones as southerly wind gusts around 25 KT are expected with seas around 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms expected on the waters through tonight and into wednesday morning. Winds and seas diminish wednesday.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through sunday...no marine headlines are currently anticipated.
Rip currents...
For wednesday and thursday, winds turn more offshore around 10 MPH or less. Breaking waves will also decrease to around 2 feet or less. While the full moon is on wednesday, decreasing wave heights, more offshore flow, and no wave period longer than 8 seconds should limit the rip current threat. As a result, elected for a low risk for rip currents at all beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi