Radar — KDVN
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
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- a large storm system will move through the midwest the first half of the week. Behind the system, spotty rain showers will be possible for the second half of the work week.
- although cooler by mid/late week, temperatures will continue to average above normal for early november.
Issued at 145 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Today through monday: mild and quiet conditions will continue through the rest of today with highs in the 60S and steady southeast winds of ~10-20 MPH. Heading into tonight, a strong area of low pressure developing in the central plains will lead to increasing southerly flow aloft across the mid to upper mississippi valley region. This will be accompanied by lower tropospheric moisture and warm air advection, which could provide enough lift to kick off isolated showers late tonight into monday AM, most favored north of highway 34 (20-50%). The increase in low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the 50S to low 60S will lead to a northward expansion of low stratus across eastern iowa and northwest illinois tonight into monday. With ceiling heights likely to be under 1000 ft agl at times, occasional drizzle is possible monday AM.
As the surface low strengthens to ~995mb across south dakota on monday, the pressure gradient will tighten locally and lead to increasing southeast winds, gusting up to 25-30 MPH. It will be another mild day on monday with highs in the low to upper 60S; dropped forecast temps several degrees below the nbm due to the widespread low clouds expected across the area. Rain will become more likely later monday afternoon into the evening across the western to northwest sections of the outlook area.
Issued at 145 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Monday night through wednesday assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures.
Although there are differences between the global models, they have been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions. Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being monday night into tuesday.
The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with the surge of moisture from the pacific along with some from the gulf. The model pwats with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with any thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will be possible since we'll be in the warm sector of the storm. The main severe risk on monday/monday night looks to hold off to the southwest of our area, but spc's latest update did push the marginal risk (level 1 or 5) northeastward to include portions of far NE missouri. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the primary threat.
Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the area on wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible the second half of the work week.
Temperatures will cool down by the middle to end of the week but still average above normal for early november.
Issued at 1157 PM CST sun nov 1 2026
Mostly MVFR ceilings, with some isolated VFR to IFR, were observed over the area as of taf issuance. The expectation is that ceilings will continue to lower overnight, with some light drizzle possible where ceilings fall to low-end MVFR to IFR. Model guidance has struggled with the current ceilings, so confidence on the exact timing of flight category changes due to ceilings remains low. Low ceilings will continue through most, if not all, of the morning before improving to MVFR, with the exception for dbq where ceilings are more likely to remain IFR. Southeast winds should remain in place throughout the taf period, with gusts around 25 knots expected.