Radar — KHPX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-41A (Primary)
Updated at 1025 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
- medium to high rain chances spread area-wide on sunday.
- dry and cool for a few days before another high chance for a soaking rainfall middle of next week.
(tonight through monday night) issued at 1025 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Showers are continuing to overspread the area this evening associated with a shortwave trough. These rain rates are very light and the nearest thunder is along the gulf coast. Expect this activity to increase in coverage throughout the day on sunday, remaining at a steady drizzle. Forecast soundings depict a saturated profile through the column with very little instability. Combined with pwats above the 90th percentile around 1.2", expect a steady widespread rain sunday morning with occasional downpours and rumbles of thunder, especially west of i-65. The main impact from this rain will be a much cooler day on sunday with temperatures even a bit below normal in the low 60S. After the shortwave and its resultant moisture pulls away, monday looks dry and mild in between systems.
(tuesday through next sunday) issued at 1025 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
The majority of tuesday is also in the transitional period awaiting the next weather maker. Dual low pressure systems are slated to eject from the rockies on tuesday morning: one with a trajectory over the great lakes and another with a track along the i-40 corridor. The southernmost surface low will be more impactful for middle tn, but it looks like we are in the sweet spot in between favorable severe weather ingredients. The great lakes system will be displaced too far north to cause any impacts. Forecast surface analyses depict the southern system deepening to the point of occlusion by the time it reaches the mississippi river on wednesday morning, centered over west tn. This will help keep the axis of highest instability confined to the gulf coast during fropa and limit our severe weather potential. Again, the main impact from this next system will be another good soaking for middle tn. Storm total QPF probabilities of rainfall > 2" are about 50-60% per the lref next week.
As the occluded low migrates off to the east on thursday and friday, wraparound showers from this same system will continue to impact parts of middle tn for several days. Broad upper level troughing per the lref supports much cooler temperatures (finally near normal in the mid 60S) and 20-40% pops through at least friday morning. We finally dry back out on friday evening but remain cool.
(00Z tafs) issued at 619 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Because of incredibly dry lower levels, VFR conditions are expected to persist until 12-14Z/sun. Once they get here, bna/mqy will see these cigs until about 00Z/mon. Ckv may see a few hours of IFR mixed during the afternoon. Csv/srb expected to remain VFR even with light rain arriving around 14Z/sun. Winds will be relatively light (~10 KTS) and southeasterly through the period.
Nashville 79 53 63 52 / 20 70 90 30 clarksville 80 53 62 52 / 30 70 100 30 crossville 72 48 60 47 / 0 10 50 30 columbia 79 52 63 52 / 30 90 100 30 cookeville 76 53 63 52 / 0 10 60 30 jamestown 75 51 63 50 / 0 10 50 40 lawrenceburg 77 51 62 51 / 20 80 100 30 murfreesboro 80 53 64 52 / 10 70 90 20 waverly 77 53 61 54 / 30 90 100 20