Weather Lookup

Key Messages

- a 30-70 percent chance of showers moves over southeast wa and the central id panhandle thursday night into friday. These showers will be accompanied by a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms.

- warmer temperatures wednesday through monday with afternoon highs in the 70S to low 80S.

Synopsis

Wednesday will be dry, then shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast over southeast wa and the central id panhandle thursday evening into friday. Afternoon temperatures will be warm wednesday through monday with highs in the 70S to low 80S, and overnight lows will fall into the 40S to low 50S.

Discussion

Tuesday evening: spotty light rain will continue over northeast wa and north id as a mid- level wave tracks southward toward northern california. While weak radar echoes can be seen over much of the region, measurable precip is mainly being observed over areas of higher terrain with surface observations indicating dry conditions elsewhere. So far precip has been light with this wave as expected. Observed precip amounts over the north cascades and other areas of higher terrain along the canadian border range from a couple hundredths of an inch to just over a tenth of an inch as of 12PM PDT. There is one exception - an observation site on the north end of the sinlahekin fire perimeter - that has received over a quarter of an inch of rain with isolated heavier showers right along and north of the canadian border.

Wednesday through monday: by wednesday the mid-level wave forms a closed low and moves south of the region, settling over northern california. Meanwhile, higher heights nudge in over eastern wa and north id, prompting a warming and drying trend. The dry weather will be briefly interrupted thursday evening into friday as the low wobbles back to the north, then tracks northeastward toward montana, bringing a 30-70 percent chance of showers and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms over southeast wa and the central id panhandle. Heading into the weekend and early next week, the low exits the area to the east, and ridging develops across the region favoring continued warm and dry conditions. Afternoon highs wednesday through monday will range from the 70S to low 80S, and overnight lows will fall into the 40S to low 50S. Overall, weather through early next week will be typical of mid- september with minimal impacts expected. /fewkes

Aviation

18Z tafs: sunny to mostly sunny skies with VFR conditions over the inland northwest today. The one caveat is in the wenatchee area (keat) where fire activity from the little giant and sisi fires will bring in smoke with hazy skies. Visibility down to as low as 5sm is expected through the rest of this morning before smoke mixes out. Seasonably warm and dry conditions today may result in additional smoke production with increased haze and MVFR conditions for these same areas late tonight into thursday morning.

Forecast confidence and/or alternate scenarios: high confidence in VFR conditions. Skies are a little hazy at keat this morning with visibility expected to vary between 5-7sm; however, high confidence for this haze to thin and mix out by 20Z. Low to moderate confidence for smoke to produce hazy at keat for thursday morning. /svh

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Confidence descriptors: low - less than a 30 percent chance moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance high - greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS spokane airports, please refer to the aviation dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard