Radar — KCAE
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-1 (Primary)
Aviation updated for 00Z issuance.
- 1. Outside of a few very light showers this evening, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.
Key message 1: outside of a few very light showers this evening, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.
Some weak southwesterly isentropic lift associated with a subtle shortwave lifting northward into the blue ridge continues to produce a few light showers. Expect these light showers to move out of the forecast area in the next couple hours or so. After this activity exits tonight, we return to our typical high pressure dominating pattern with warming temps, partly cloudy skies, and breezy winds through wednesday. A strong front is expected to approach the area thursday as a sharp trough ejects out of the central US and occludes before being picked up within the northern stream jet. A corresponding surface low is forecast to develop and drag a front through the area, with some notable moisture return ahead of it. Rain chances however have steadily decreased as this low is looking more likely to lift well north into the great lakes, limiting the frontal and synoptic dynamic forcing in our area. Some showers are still likely, but widespread heavy rain and any severe thunderstorm threat has lessened across sc and eastern ga.
VFR conditions are expected through the taf forecast period.
High pressure continues to ridge into the region through the period but some weak warm advection downstream of the upper trough over the oh/tn valley has resulted in widespread high and mid level clouds. Expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail through the period although there could be some clearing late monday afternoon. Winds tonight should be around 5 to 7 knots from the northeast before picking up to around 10 knots or so after 13Z and cannot rule out some intermittent gusts to around 15 knots.
Extended aviation outlook...low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions midweek.