Radar — KMXX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: US-27 (Primary)
- a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 1 AM EDT for portions of far north georgia.
- the threat for storms will continue tonight with the main threats being strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning across portions of north and eastern georgia.
- heat impacts will be felt again across portions of central georgia tomorrow. Heat advisories may once again be needed as heat indices are forecast to be above 105.
Issued at 809 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
A line of strong storms is moving through south-central tennessee and is expected to enter far north georgia within the next hour. The environment in far north georgia will be favorable for strong to severe storms to continue into the forecast area, with sbcape between 3000-4000 j/kg and 0-1 km SHEAR of 20-25 KTS. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any severe storms that develop, along with very frequent lightning and locally heavy rain. 0-1 srh values are also around 100 m2/S2, so these storms could also exhibit some rotation and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of north georgia for an area north of a rough line from rome to alpharetta to athens and will be in effect until 1 AM. With the loss of diurnal instability, uncertainty remains on how long these storms will hold together. If they persist into early morning, a downstream expansion of the watch may be warranted.
King
(this afternoon through wednesday) issued at 248 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
Folks, it's warm out there. Heat indices are into the triple digits across much of north and central georgia this afternoon with the atl airport sitting at a just ~lovely~ 105 f heat index as of this writing. Temperatures are in the 90S and dewpoints are in the 70S. The good news up front is that some relief from the heat is on the way, though it will take a day or two to filter into the area. The only other things of note is that things likely look a little hazy up above - wildfire smoke from the pacific NW is filtering around the ridge and being carried by the jet over US. Another burst of this is expected to move in later tonight per "smoke allowing" convective guidance, though again this should mostly remain well above US and not impact US on the ground.
Other weather story we are monitoring is convective chances later tonight. I honestly wish i could say we had a bit more certainty given we are only a few hours from when storms may push in, but model guidance remains boom or bust, with more bust than boom. Aloft we have a shortwave embedded in the jet that has given US a nice jet streak within the NW flow around the large ridge over the central conus. Front associated with this has already started to fire some convection in ky and wv that -should- be the main player for US later tonight. These storms are expected to congeal into a line of storms that pushes south and eventually southeast, moving into the area from nc/tn after accelerating ahead of the frontal boundary. Where the big uncertainty begins is as it approaches the state - many cams completely dissipate the system, in some cases before it even reaches the border. Others hold it together briefly into the state but have it quickly fall apart after that. This is certainly possible, given the system should outrun both forcing and better SHEAR and run into our area after sunset, meaning surface based parcels will be more challenging to get going. However, there are some biases here to consider, especially with over mixing of moisture, which could be having an outsized impact on the convective coverage of these models. The other side of the coin is the refs (rrfs ensemble), which does show ~40% of members holding storms together into north georgia, and keeping even 20-30% chances into the atlanta metro.
So, with all that said, the current forecast leans towards that 30- 40% chance of seeing something across northern georgia. Given we will still have ~3000 j/kg of instability to work with ahead of the line well into the overnight hours, storms may remain vigorous with some isolated damaging wind gusts possible. A slight risk remains in effect for NE ga with a marginal risk extending into the metro and the rest of N ga.
Relatively cooler and drier air is expected to begin filtering into northern georgia by early morning tomorrow. The diurnal cycle will slow down the progression of the front into the area through the afternoon, so looks like portions of central georgia will have to wait another day to get relief from the heat. While heat indices should "only" reach into the 90S across north georgia and the metro on wednesday, they will go soaring once again into the triple digits across portions of central georgia. Heat advisories will likely be needed once again, with issuance later tonight after the current advisories expire. Some afternoon thunderstorms will be possible across central georgia during the afternoon ahead of the stalled outflow boundary from tonight's system. This could put a damper on the worst of the heat, especially if coverage is more than expected.
(thursday morning through next monday) issued at 248 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
By wed night the cold front that moved into the area in the short term will still be moving south through the state moving into south ga/N fl by thu morning. This boundary stalls near the fl/ga border but it does usher in some drier air which should keep north and central ga precipitation free through friday night. Temps are not expected to cool to much thu/fri with high temps still expected in the upper 80S to middle 90S but the apparent t (feels like temps) will be much lower.
By sat the next frontal boundary moving east out of the lower to mid ms river valley moves into W ga just before daybreak. The main low pressure center moves east into western ky at the same time. With the close proximity of the low center to NW ga this frontal boundary should stay fairly organized as it moves into the region. The current forecast models show this front stalling across E/SE ga and the carolinas through tues keeping the area in moist S to SW flow through day 7. This will keep precip chances elevated through day 7.
(00Z tafs) issued at 809 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
VFR conditions persist across all taf sites to start the area. A cu field between 050-060 will diminish in coverage under upper level clouds. A line of storms is entering far north ga, which will have the potential to impact the northern taf sites. Impacts appear to be most likely at ahn/pdk, where there is a tempo for tsra in effect from 01-05Z. Strong winds could furthermore accompany these storms. Uncertainty remains on how well these storms will hold together, with a prob30 for tsra at atl from 03-06Z. Some elevated cloud cover will persist in the morning, and will clear in the afternoon as a boundary moves southward through the state. Outside of tsra, winds will be W/NW through the period at 5-10 KTS.
//atl confidence...00Z update... Medium confidence on timing/coverage of overnight tsra. High confidence on all other elements.
King
Athens 75 94 69 91 / 20 0 0 0 atlanta 77 92 71 91 / 20 0 0 0 blairsville 68 84 59 83 / 30 0 0 0 cartersville 75 90 66 88 / 30 0 0 0 columbus 79 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 0 gainesville 74 91 67 90 / 30 0 0 0 macon 78 96 72 94 / 0 10 10 0 rome 74 90 67 87 / 20 10 0 0 peachtree city 76 92 69 91 / 10 10 0 0 vidalia 78 99 74 96 / 10 20 10 10