Radar — KILN
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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No significant changes.
1) a weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain to the region sunday and early monday. A stronger system will result in more widespread precipitation for the middle part of next week.
Key message 1) surface high pressure will move east tonight ahead of a weak mid level S/W. This S/W will be undercutting a l/W ridge, which will hamper any deeper development of S/W and associated vorticity. Light and scattered rainfall with this system will end early monday morning as the mean S/W axis exits to the easts during this time. The l/W ridge builds back in mon night and early tues, then gets shunted ewd during the day. This will allow swly flow over the ohio valley to take hold ahead of a potent l/W trough.
This l/W trough and/or cutoff low is all over the map for tues night onward, leading to very low confidence in forecast going forward. Even though confidence is low on mass fields, they all support rain on wed with deep SW flow being wrung out over the region. A continued chance of rain through the end of the week is also prudent given the divergence of upper level mass fields. While some chance of rain is expected through the period, it won't be any washout or extended rainfall event after the more widespread rain expected wednesday.
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. A weak system will move across the area through the taf period. Any rain is expected to be spotty and light. Due to this only have a tempo shra in at the end of the longer kcvg taf, however cannot rule out a light shower at the taf sites at other times. Winds are expected to be light and less than 10 knots.
Outlook...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times wednesday and thursday.