Radar — KILN
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: West 3rd Street (Primary)
No significant changes.
1) a weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain showers to the region tonight into monday. A stronger system will result in more widespread precipitation for the middle part of the week.
Key message 1) a weak mid level short wave will move across the ohio valley today through monday morning. The low levels will remain quite dry through this afternoon, so while it will be tough to rule out a few sprinkles, think the main effect for the daytime period will mainly just be some mid level cloudiness. Ahead of the short wave, a developing 20-30 knot low level jet will lift up into our area this evening into tonight. As we continue to moisten up, this will lead to developing scattered showers this evening. These will continue through tonight and then linger into monday morning before dissipating.
Models have trended a little slower with the upper level trough moving out of the central u.S. Through mid week. Nonetheless, increasing southerly flow ahead of this system will allow for decent moisture advection into the ohio valley. This will lead to widespread showers overspreading our area on wednesday, with precipitation chances then persisting into thursday. Mu capes look to be minimal at best so would think any embedded thunder chances would be limited. A secondary mid level short wave moving through the great lakes region will lead to additional chances for showers on friday.
Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period.
Mid level clouds will prevail into this evening ahead of a weak mid level short wave moving through the ohio valley. A weak low level jet ahead of the short wave will lead to a developing chance for showers this evening and into the overnight hours. As the low levels moisten up, cigs will lower into MVFR category later tonight.
Outlook...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times wednesday and thursday.