Radar — KHTX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Updated at 906 AM CDT sat oct 31 2026
- gusty winds 25-30 MPH beginning this afternoon and continuing into sunday.
- low chances for showers this afternoon, increasing to medium to high chances tonight through sunday.
- medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.
(tonight) issued at 159 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
There have been no changes in the forecast since the previous update. Dewpoint depressions remain around 20 degrees, which still indicates that the dry airmass is entrenched near the sfc. Some light returns are being picked up on radar, but no obs sites are indicating its reaching the ground. Forecast remains on track with the bulk of the rainfall occurring overnight.
Previous discussion: satellite imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover over most of the southeast. These are likely in response to southerly to southwesterly flow advecting in better moisture from the gulf and lifting it over the relatively dry airmass in place across the tennessee valley, as it evident in both the bmx and bna 12Z soundings. These winds aloft will eventually translate down to the sfc with wind gusts 25-30 MPH expected this afternoon. As we head through the rest of today, our airmass will gradually modify becoming more saturated. At the same time, an upper level trough will dip down towards the local forecast area providing some lift for precip by this evening. Hires model guidance shows a low chance of light showers developing late this afternoon and increasing to medium to high chances tonight. Instability with this system is limited, therefore only a very low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Overall, most halloween activities should remain dry as the heaviest precip will primarily be overnight into tomorrow morning.
(sunday through monday) issued at 906 AM CDT sat oct 31 2026
The aformentioned upper level trough axis will shift to our east on sunday bringing an end to the precip by the late afternoon. In its wake upper level ridging over the deep south will move into the southeast. This will gradually warm US back up from afternoon highs in the mid 60S on sunday to low to mid 70S on monday. Unfortunately, soundings show a very saturated airmass continuing into the start of next week and therefore, overcast skies remain through the day on monday.
(monday night through friday) issued at 1019 PM CDT fri oct 30 2026
As the longwave trough axis and associated cold front moves east towards the mississippi valley area monday night into tuesday, the upper ridge should continue to amplify. In fact, upper level pressure patterns in models are suggestive of a weak rex block type of pattern setting up over the midwest. This could end up slowing this cold front down more in future guidance if this pattern more fully develops.
Strong southerly flow and a very amplified upper ridge should allow for highs to climb back into the mid 70S (possibly mid to upper 70S again). This strengthening southerly flow should help to bring more moisture northward from the gulf of america towards midweek. Very strong mid/low level forcing is shown in guidance ahead of this storm system.
Currently, most guidance develops widespread and much heavier rainfall over northern alabama late tuesday night into wednesday night ahead of this stronger cold front. 0-6 km bulk SHEAR is not extreme, but does climb to between 40 and 60 knots as the front approaches. In addition, portions of northern alabama might realize very meager surface based instability, so we may be looking a qlcs type event shaping up sometime during that window. However, more certainty looks to be in a very heavy rainfall threat (maybe 2-4 inches mainly wednesday into wednesday night) given the strong/deep forcing guidance is showing over the area and high pwats values. Expect this heavy rainfall threat to taper off early thursday morning. Wednesday looks to be a real washout, so highs will likely be kept in the upper 60S/lower 70S (which might be generous).
Expect dry conditions to return to the area late thursday night into friday morning. Though it will be cooler behind this front, the airmass is not very cold. Highs will remain cool though and drop into the mid to upper 60S on friday with some lingering cloud cover. Lows should slow drop into the 40 to lower 50S at night.
(18Z tafs) issued at 1153 AM CDT sat oct 31 2026
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the early evening. Gusty winds continue through the rest of the taf period with SE winds gusting up to 25 knots at times. Rain begins to overspread the terminals after 03Z from west to east with cigs lowering to MVFR. As the llj increases tonight, expect some wind SHEAR to be present with 40 KT winds just above the sfc. The wind SHEAR concerns wane by sunrise tomorrow, but cloud heights are forecast to decrease to below fuel alternate. Some guidance suggest IFR cigs, but for now left out of the current forecast given low confidence.