Radar — KHTX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
Updated at 1018 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
- a cold front will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region overnight. Gusty winds are the main threat with any storms that develop.
- an unsettled weather pattern begins on saturday with medium to high chances (50%-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day into early next week.
(today) issued at 156 AM CDT wed jul 29 2026
A highly anticipated cold front is currently makings its way across the tn valley. Along and ahead of the front, light showers and a few thunderstorms are slowly propagating SE. Through the night as the front progresses, low rain and storm chances will remain in the forecast with best chances south of the tn river.
As the sun rises, the front should be shifting to our south leaving some residual showers and cloud cover mainly in NW al. With the front to our south, NW surface flow will work to usher in slightly cooler and much drier air. Temps will be limit to the high 80S to low 90S with dew points potentially dropping into the 60S by the end of the day! The drier air will infiltrate the whole profile and looks to reduce both rain chances to less than 10% by this evening and drop pwats below 1.5 inches.
(wednesday through friday) issued at 1018 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
The setup for the short term will leave the tennessee valley under prevailing north northwesterly flow as the region remains in between a trough to the east centered over ny on wednesday and ridge to the west across nm and the southern plains. Behind the cold front, drier air will begin to filter in on wednesday as the front stalls to our south and by thursday morning pwats are forecast to be below 1.0" across the area. Forecast max temps and heat indices will also fall and highs will drop closer to normal in the mid-80S to low 90S through friday. Low temps will also see a reprieve by friday morning in the mid-60S which will be a very welcome change. Outside of some lingering shower activity along the frontal boundary wednesday morning, the short term period will remain dry until friday night when we will begin to see a weather pattern change for the long term period.
(saturday through tuesday) issued at 1018 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
This weekend will begin a more unsettled weather pattern as a trough digs southward across the great lakes region on saturday and sunday. Ensembles differ in the handling of this trough with the eps showing a stronger trough closing off to our north and the GEFS remaining an open wave over the ohio river valley into early next week. Regardless, rain and storm chances will increase this weekend into early next week as moisture filters back into the area. Temps should remain at or below normal during the day with milder overnight lows. We will have to wait and see for the finer details of any severe threat that may evolve as models become more in sync in the coming days. Make sure to check back if planning anything outside this weekend as the forecast can and will likely change.
(06Z tafs) issued at 1151 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
A low chance of light showers will remain in the forecast through the early morning hours. Outside of a stray shower, VFR conditions are forecast to remain through the period at both terminals.