Radar — KHTX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Updated at 359 AM CDT tue sep 15 2026
- a heat advisory is in effect through 8 PM saturday across all of southern middle tennessee and northern alabama.
- NWS heat risk highlights moderate (level 2/4) to major (level 3/4) heat impacts through the weekend across the tennessee valley. Localized extreme (level 4/4) impacts may occur in urbanized areas.
(tonight) issued at 129 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Any remaining cumulus clouds should dissipate quickly by or shortly after sunset leaving a clear sky overnight. With dew points dropping into the middle to upper 60S, overnight lows are expected to reach the upper 60S to lower 70S. Patchy river valley fog will occur in a few spots, mainly along the tn river and valleys in jackson and dekalb counties, and also in cullman county.
(thursday through friday night) issued at 808 AM CDT wed sep 16 2026
A close to persistence forecast is in order through friday. The 5h high will shift west into the lower ms valley tonight into thursday, and into ar and tx on friday. This as a tutt/low moves west toward the fl peninsula. Thus, a very low chance of a shower or thunderstorm enters the forecast friday afternoon in our eastern counties along the higher terrain. But, this chance is still less than 10%, but will monitor trends. Otherwise, expect highs to remain in the 90S with lows in the upper 60S to lower 70S.
(saturday through tuesday) issued at 1051 PM CDT tue sep 15 2026
By the second half of the weekend, the anchored ridge will be pushed to our west as the wondering upper level low moves westward across fl and into the northern gulf. Models are even more split today on what the strength and longevity of this low will be. It seems to stall for a little bit over the NE gulf late saturday into sunday before either sliding westward, or weakening and fading out completely. Regardless, dangerous heat will persist into the later part of the weekend. Look for highs to be in the lower 90S in NE al/portions of southern middle tn, and the mid to upper 90S elsewhere. Heat index values at this time look to remain below heat advisory criteria sitting around 100 degrees, however we will remain in a level 2-3 heatrisk across the tn valley. So ensure to be heat safe/smart. Slow down, hydrate and never leave people or pets in vehicles.
An upper level trough will move across the rockies and northern plains this weekend and into the upper midwest early next week, but there is also uncertainty on this feature. A sfc low will move into the oh valley on monday and try to pull a cold front towards the tn valley. Will see low to medium rain chances return (20-45%) on monday, but with the front most likely stalling on tuesday, we won't see a frontal passage, but have rain chances continue. This will at least help the temps lower a tad with some seeing highs in the upper 80S tuesday afternoon.
(18Z tafs) issued at 1108 AM CDT wed sep 16 2026
VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.