Radar — KFTG
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (Central)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: East 14th Avenue (Secondary)
- showers and thunderstorms likely across the high terrain in the late morning, shifting to the plains by the afternoon.
- a couple of strong storms could produce localized flash flooding, particularly along the i-25 corridor.
- drying out again later in the week. Heat returns by the weekend.
Issued at 1228 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Goes-18 satellite data early this afternoon show that robust convective initiation is ongoing across the front range foothills. Radar estimates and precipitation gauges suggest that some of these initial storms have still been efficient rainfall producers across the foothills... Meaning that burn area flash flooding is still a concern this afternoon.
However, much like the past several days... Initial convection has struggled once making it into the urban corridor. Why is this? There are several possible explanations. Despite a relatively favorable environment (t/td of 90/57 at den), acars soundings still maintain a subtle stable layer between roughly 750-675 mb. While there's still 1500-2000 j/kg mlcape in that sounding there's also a relatively deep, weakly buoyant region above the lfc that would be prone to some entrainment. With little/no synoptic ascent through this layer, it would likely take larger, mature updrafts to overcome this. It's possible additional ci attempts across the foothills will lead to more sustained convection across the denver metro, but it appears more likely that our favored terrain (northern front range and palmer divide) will see the bulk of the rainfall this afternoon, with gradual upscale growth towards east of the i-25 corridor later this afternoon and evening.
As that cluster of convection shifts eastward, the increased precipitable water and deeper warm cloud layer depths would favor the potential for some brief but rather heavy rainfall rates this evening. Recent refs 3hr pmm QPF hints at as much as 3-5" of rainfall this evening in washington county... With broad support from today's href members as well. I saw no reason to adjust the existing flood watch across the plains, which will remain in effect from 3-10 PM. As the midnight shift noted, there is still a slim possibility that this cluster of storms eventually sends some outflow back towards the metro, which would provide another opportunity for some showers/storms that would be capable of producing some heavy rain.
Wednesday looks to be the last day of well above normal moisture, though similar concerns remain about the coverage of storms across the region. Overall we expect a fairly similar convective setup compared to today, with perhaps a bit more coverage along/west of i-25. Storm chances will be dictated by the amount of moisture return tonight/tomorrow morning. Assuming we do see low/mid 60S dew points across the urban corridor tomorrow morning, there would be some heavy rain potential once again.
The latter half of the week will feature a quick drying trend, with warmer temperatures likely returning by the weekend. Chances for showers/storms will continue for thursday but should quickly diminish by saturday or sunday as a 600 dam ridge at 500mb develops near the four corners region. Guidance hints that we could see a return of upper 90S/low 100S by the end of the weekend, which then persist through early next week.
Issued at 1147 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Winds are currently from the southeast at den and apa (northwest at bjc) and will likely continue for the next few hours before drainage flow takes place. In the morning, expect light and (<10 KTS) and vrb winds. There could be areas of fog in the morning given high dewpoints, however confidence is not high (10-20% chance) so have decided to keep any mention of it out of the taf for now.
Expect a similar setup with showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon as tuesday. Convection will begin in the mountains by late morning/early afternoon, before spilling onto the plains by 20Z-21Z. Gusty outflow winds of 40-45 KTS and heavy rain reducing visibility will be the main concerns. Cam trends continue to indicate scattered showers after the main line of convection in the evening, so have kept the prob30 in the taf.