Radar — KDMX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: East University Avenue (Secondary)
- significant heat relief arrives today with highs in the upper 80S to lower 90S.
- mainly dry conditions prevail through wednesday.
- shower and storm chances (60-80%) return by thursday afternoon.
Issued at 156 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
The latest surface analysis shows a departing cold front. Lingering sprinkles to light showers persist on the backside of the boundary, primarily north of u.S. 71. Current temperatures range from the upper 70S to lower 80S across northern iowa, warming to the mid-to- upper 80S along and south of the i-80 corridor. Lastly, goes geocolor satellite imagery highlights widespread wildfire smoke across much of the area.
Behind the departing front, upper-level height rises will support dry conditions alongside a return to temperatures in the upper 80S to lower 90S this afternoon and again wednesday. While these warm temperatures are currently materializing south of the i-80 corridor, widespread cloud cover across northern iowa could limit daytime boundary-layer heating. Additionally, solar attenuation from the smoke layer visible on satellite imagery could temper afternoon highs by a few degrees. Nonetheless, upper-level ridging building in from the southwest will favor dry weather starting this afternoon and persisting through the mid-week forecast period. However, attention will shift away from the building heat as the ridge breaks down late wednesday night into thursday morning with the approach of a shortwave trough.
A departing cold front leaves behind lingering light showers north of u.S. 71 alongside widespread wildfire smoke. An upper-level ridge building from the southwest will bring dry conditions and high temperatures in the upper 80S to lower 90S through wednesday; however, lingering cloud cover and smoke may slightly temper afternoon heating. The pattern turns more active late wednesday night into thursday as the ridge breaks down ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.
Issued at 156 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
An approaching shortwave trough is forecast to eject off the high plains of colorado toward the upper central plains and great lakes. As this occurs, a surface low will track eastward toward iowa, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms starting thursday afternoon. The primary focus for strong to severe storms will remain mostly west of the cwa; however, the far western periphery of the cwa is in a day 3 SPC marginal risk, with damaging winds as the primary threat.
While a marginal risk exists for severe weather, the paramount concern for thursday into late friday is heavy rainfall. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles alongside pws ranging from 2.00 to 2.50 inches favor highly efficient warm-rain processes. In addition to these moisture parameters, the slow-moving nature of the upper-level trough will support several rounds of heavy rainfall through the frontal passage late friday. Given the elevated flood potential, the WPC has placed the area in day 3 and day 4 slight risk eros.
Behind the departing shortwave, surface high pressure builds into the region for the weekend. Temperatures behind the front will run roughly 10 degrees cooler compared to forecast highs on wednesday. Although model confidence degrades late in the weekend into early next week, temperatures are expected to gradually rebound toward seasonal summertime values.
An approaching shortwave trough and surface low will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms thursday afternoon through late friday. Elevated pws and tall, skinny CAPE profiles will support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, prompting day 3 and day 4 slight risk eros from the WPC, alongside a day 3 SPC marginal risk for severe storms along the western cwa periphery. Surface high pressure brings drier and roughly 10 degrees cooler weather for the weekend before temperatures gradually rebound early next week.
Issued at 1045 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
Main aviation challenge is the potential for patchy fog toward 12Z/7AM. Probabilities of MVFR restrictions are between 20 to 40% at fod, mcw, and dsm; however, confidence is low in prevailing MVFR restrictions so have included 6sm br and will monitor for possible amd. After any fog dissipates, diurnal cumulus will develop mid to late morning. While there could be a brief period of MVFR, ceilings will trend higher so have opted to keep sct035.