Radar — KRAX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: East Peabody Street (Primary)
* lowered shower and qfp chances, and warmed temperatures mid-week through the weekend. What else is new?
As of 125 AM sunday...
1) seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high clouds the rest of this weekend.
2) chance of showers from late wednesday night through friday night or saturday. Continued very warm mid through late week.
As of 125 AM sunday...
Key message 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high clouds the rest of this weekend.
S and SW flow ahead of a mid-level short wave trough currently over the central plains will spread abundant mid and high clouds across our area through the rest of the weekend. But it will remain dry given the stable low levels and relative minimum in PWAT and low level dwpts. The current airmass will support highs within a few deg of seasonal averages.
Key message 2... Chance of showers from late wednesday night through friday night or saturday. Continued very warm from mid through late week. A bit cooler (but still above normal temperatures).
There is a chance of showers starting wednesday night in the west, then progressing NE over our region thursday and thursday night. However, confidence remains low given the spread in the models and the seemingly endless "kicking the can" down the road on days 5-7. Even a week ago, models (we) were advertising increasing shower chances on days 5-7. Yet, it has yet to verify. This next chance of showers is advertised as a large spoke of energy tracks NE across there region during thursday with the main upper trough well to our NW over the midwest at that time. Thus, this forecast will likely continue to be refined over time as models further adjust on the timing and strength of the energy this far SE at that time. Regardless, the SE upper ridge shifts just offshore. The south to southwest flow ahead of the trough upstream will keep temperatures a good 10-15 degrees (if not more) above normal wednesday through friday. Lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70S is more typical of early september.
Then, all bets are off for the weekend as the models give and take. Right now it appears that the main dynamics of the next upper trough will again pass to our west and north this weekend, meaning low chances of showers and continued warmth, but only 5-8 degrees above normal instead of 15.
As of 125 AM sunday...
24 hour taf period: VFR conditions expected with abundant mid and high clouds over the region. NE sfc winds 10KT or less.
Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the upcoming work week with a small chance of some stratus/fog on wednesday morning and a better chance on thursday morning. There is also a chance of light rain in the west on wednesday and areawide on thursday, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.