Weather Lookup

Key Messages

Updated at 130 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

- slight chance of isolated storms with gusty winds this afternoon and evening.

- heat wave and elevated fire danger persists through at least saturday.

- a cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain chances and cooler temperatures by early next week.

Near Term

(rest of today and tonight) issued at 130 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

A boundary that was across the NW third or so of the area early this morning has slowly been lifting northward and is along a line from near cheyenne to cherokee ok early this afternoon. Hot temperatures are expected again this afternoon, especially for those areas south and southeast of the boundary. Temperatures are expected to be less hot but still above average. Triple digit highs are expected to be fairly common south of the boundary with highs in the low/mid 90S north of the boundary. Heat index values of 105+ are also expected this afternoon in parts of south central ok so heat advisory remains in effect.

A few of the cams had been showing a few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon/early evening in parts of ok. These models have backed off a little from earlier today but there is still a low (10-16%) chance for maybe a storm or two to develop in an area from SW to north central ok. If this activity does develop, gusty winds will be possible.

Elevated fire weather conditions also continue this afternoon, especially for areas generally along and south of the i-40 corridor and along and west of the i-35 corridor. The vegetation in this area is particularly dry making fuels susceptible to fire starts/wildfires.

Short Term

(thursday through friday night) issued at 130 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

Models show the center of the upper high gradually shifting west towards the region over the next couple of days which will help continue the persistent heatwave that has been occurring in the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90S to low 100S across the fa thursday and friday with heat index values of 105+ expected in south central ok at least thursday afternoon. With these forecast heat index values, a heat advisory has been issued for thursday afternoon across parts of south central ok (same area as today's advisory).

Some of the cams are showing a few isolated showers/storms may develop (~10% chance) in SE parts of the fa thursday afternoon as well with gusty winds possible if they develop.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue to be a problem for the rest of the week in the same general area as mentioned above due to the very dry vegetation. Unfortunately, fire weather will likely remain a factor until this area can receive some beneficial rainfall.

Long Term

(saturday through tuesday) issued at 259 AM CDT wed sep 16 2026

The upper ridge, stubbornly remains centered near the arklatex region on saturday as a strong northern stream wave approaches the northern rockies and a shortwave approaches from the desert southwest. This will facilitate a southward progression of a cold front into kansas on saturday. This pattern will allow hot conditions to persist on saturday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms returning to north/west oklahoma by afternoon. Rain/storm chances increase saturday night (mainly over northern and western oklahoma) with low chances expanding towards the i-44 corridor.

Sunday marks the first day of the upcoming pattern change. Latest nbm guidance has the cold front reaching northwest oklahoma on sunday morning and the ECMWF/GFS suggest the boundary stalls somewhere over northern oklahoma. Weak caa, increased cloudiness, and rain/storms will provide for less hot temperatures for most areas compared to recent days. Forecast highs range from the upper 80's (northern ok) to near 100 degrees (southern ok and north tx). Model consensus is improving for these temperatures on sunday, as shown by the shrinking boxplot with the 25-75th percentile range (reasonable expected high temperatures) having decreased from about 10 degrees (i.E., a much wider range) the past several runs to about 5 degrees difference. Unfortunately, the scale has tipped more in favor of warmer temperatures than cooler for sunday.

Then, a reinforcing front brings enhanced caa late sunday and the surface front pushes through central oklahoma on sunday night. Widespread rain/storms are likely as the boundary progresses southward. Shower and storms are possible during the day on sunday, especially over north-central oklahoma near the front. Rain chances continue into monday and diminish from north to south during the day, with high temperatures in the 80's/90's forecast both monday and tuesday. There remains large differences in temperatures among ensemble members for next week.

Thompson

Aviation

(18Z tafs) issued at 1153 AM CDT wed sep 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will veer this afternoon, back to the southeast after sunset, then veer again to the southwest by thursday morning. Winds generally will be below 10KT after sunset this evening.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

Oklahoma city ok 76 98 75 97 / 20 0 0 0 hobart ok 75 99 75 99 / 20 0 0 0 wichita falls tx 75 101 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 gage ok 72 98 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 ponca city ok 74 97 74 95 / 20 0 0 0 durant ok 76 100 75 101 / 10 10 0 0