Radar — KEPZ
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: North Mesa Street (Primary)
Updated at 1100 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
- hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each afternoon, with a slight decrease for the weekend. - isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the high terrain and western new mexico. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and localized flash flooding.
Issued at 1100 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Persistent upper high remains fixed over the southern rockies, and will sit there through at least the remainder of late july. This will drive the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the north american monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperature/terrain forcing producing meager instability. The monsoonal plume will be broad and diffuse, but generally favor the az/nm state line. Precipitable water values are around an inch through much of southwest new mexico, with drier air further to the east across far west texas and southeast new mexico.
Downtrend in storm chances is expected over the next couple days, as the upper high drifts south slightly. This will put it directly over central new mexico, acting as a suppressant with subsident 500-mb flow causing a warming effect aloft and eating away at potential instability. Southwest new mexico and the high terrain may still see isolated (10-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms wednesday/thursday afternoons, but the majority of the cwa will remain dry.
The main headline for the desert lowlands will continue to be hot temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late july, which means lowland highs in the 102 to 106 degree range through at least next friday. A heat advisory is in effect for el paso and the lower rio grande valley through friday, and may need to be expanded back into much of southern new mexico on friday.
Overall weather pattern for the extended forecast will be warmer- than-normal temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly across southwest new mexico and the southern nm high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of august, which may allow for better storm coverage and some interesting north flow aloft this upcoming saturday/sunday.
(06Z tafs) issued at 1100 PM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Vmc through forecast period under southeast flow aloft. Some lingering tsra across southwest nm tonight, clearing after 08Z. Overnight conditions 280-360 at 5-10 knots across S nm, with skies few-sct150. Drier conditions on wednesday will lead to lower storm coverage over mtns and mostly clear skies for kelp. SE surface winds 100-150 at 6 to 12 knots mid-afternoon.
Issued at 1100 AM MDT tue jul 28 2026
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered storms develop out west this afternoon with some heavy rain/flash flood potential. Frequent lightning and outflow gusts to 40 MPH are possible into the evening. Most areas remain dry today with light S-SE winds and temps above normal. Storm chances decrease wed/thu to the west as temps remain hot. Area mtns will see better storm chances into the weekend with spotty coverage in the lowlands. Temps cool off slightly for the weekend. Winds remain light from the southeast this week.
Min rhs range from 12-30% through fri. Vent rates will be good to very good.
El paso 77 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0 sierra blanca 69 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 las cruces 71 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0 alamogordo 73 102 74 102 / 0 10 0 10 cloudcroft 56 79 55 78 / 10 10 10 20 truth or consequences 73 101 74 101 / 10 10 20 10 silver city 64 94 67 95 / 20 30 30 30 deming 71 103 75 104 / 10 10 10 0 lordsburg 70 100 73 102 / 20 20 20 10 west el paso metro 78 103 80 104 / 10 0 0 0 dell city 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 fort hancock 76 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 loma linda 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 fabens 76 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 santa teresa 75 102 76 103 / 10 0 0 0 white sands hq 78 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0 jornada range 74 103 76 104 / 10 0 10 0 hatch 73 104 76 105 / 10 10 10 0 columbus 75 103 77 104 / 20 0 10 0 orogrande 72 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 mayhill 61 89 61 90 / 10 10 0 20 mescalero 60 91 61 91 / 10 10 10 20 timberon 58 88 58 88 / 10 10 0 20 winston 63 93 63 93 / 20 20 30 40 hillsboro 71 99 72 100 / 10 20 20 20 spaceport 71 101 73 102 / 10 10 10 0 lake roberts 59 94 61 95 / 20 30 30 40 hurley 65 97 68 98 / 10 30 30 20 cliff 65 101 69 102 / 10 20 20 20 mule creek 63 96 67 98 / 20 10 20 10 faywood 68 97 70 98 / 10 20 20 10 animas 69 100 73 102 / 40 20 20 0 hachita 69 100 72 101 / 30 20 20 0 antelope wells 69 99 71 101 / 30 20 20 0 cloverdale 65 93 68 97 / 30 30 30 0