Radar — KBUF
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: State Street (Primary)
No significant forecast changes this morning.
1) high pressure in control through the end of the week.
2) upper trough moves into the great lakes for the weekend bringing a return to chances for showers/storms.
Key message 1... Upper level ridge axis moves into the great lakes for the end of the week as high pressure settles into the region at the surface. The upper trough that has moved east of the area continues to bring lake enhanced cloud cover ashore in breezy northerly flow, and should end after 12Z this morning except for NW pa where some cloud cover could hang on into the afternoon aided by mixing. Expecting mostly clear conditions today otherwise in a cooler and slightly lower dewpoint airmass. This airmass will modify each day with slightly higher temperatures into the low to mid 80S by friday. Meanwhile, thursday will be sunny once again while friday has increasing cirrus cloud cover from the west.
Key message 2... An upper level trough will track into the southern great lakes from the upper mississippi valley while generating surface low pressure over the mid mississippi valley. An inverted surface trough from the surface low will set up over the cwa for saturday and sunday, bringing back higher dewpoints, a return of low/mid level moisture, and patchy, weak instability in a pattern that will not progress much during that period. In the end, expecting temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80S for the weekend and chance pops with some uncertainties in the coverage and timing.
VFR conditions will continue across western terminals through the taf period. Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected at terminals downstream of lake erie in lake enhanced cloud cover. Any MVFR ceilings at these terminals should improve to VFR (3.5-5 kft) this morning. Widespread skc is anticipated by this afternoon as high pressure builds overhead.
A few lingering gusty northerly winds along the lakeshore tonight but expect winds to largely diminish to 10 knots or less through late this morning. Northerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 knots is expected again during the late morning and afternoon hours today.
Outlook...non-VFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected saturday afternoon through sunday.
Elevated northerly winds 15-25 knots continue across the lake through tonight before diminishing overnight thursday into friday morning as high pressure builds overhead. Given the stronger onshore flow, wave heights in the central and eastern basins of 4-7 feet remain. Small craft advisory and beach hazard statement remain in effect through late tonight. Conditions will be hazardous for small craft in addition to the high risk of rip currents. Swimming is discouraged!
As the aforementioned high pressure system builds overhead, winds will decrease and become light and variable by friday. Winds turn easterly saturday and sunday as low pressure passes south of lake erie.