Radar — KFSX
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-180 (Primary)
Isolated to scattered showers continue through this afternoon, then become more widespread tonight through sunday. Heavy rain is expected with flash flooding possible across the entire region. This is a serious situation. Stay tuned to your favorite weather source and find a way to receive warnings. Stay away from waterways. Turn around, don't drown.
A soggy halloween weekend is expected overall but halloween night is shaping up to be dry in most places.
Moisture continues to surge northward ahead of an approaching trough this afternoon. The trajectory of the moisture combined with some shallow instability, will allow for upslope showers to develop and continue into this afternoon, especially along and south of the mogollon rim.
The deepening west coast trough will be the catalyst for the next round of heavy rainfall from late tonight through sunday. As we head into this evening, moisture continues to increase and with the mid- level flow strengthening and rain becoming more widespread across the region. Expect increased activity with moderate to heavy rain to continue from late tonight into sunday. On sunday, the trough starts to push to the east. This will drag a strong cold front through the area, further enhancing the heavy rain into sunday evening, plus adding a marginal severe risk for sunday. Main severe hazards will be a damaging wind threat. While conditions are not ideal for rotating storms, we cannot rule out an isolated tornado, mainly across the southern most parts of our forecast area. Models continue to hit the precipitation aspect of the event hard, especially along and south of the mogollon rim. Pwats remain well above normal with values ranging between 1.0"-1.5" through much of the region. The already saturated grounds will exacerbate flooding concerns and in some areas we may see sharp rises on creeks and streams with what we would normally consider relatively light rainfall amounts. Rainfall totals remain highest along and south the mogollon rim, with totals between 3"-6". Other areas may see 1"-3" with locally 4"+ possible. The flash flood watch remains in effect through late sunday night for the entire forecast area. It is not often we see a moderate excessive rainfall outlook across our area from the weather prediction center, so please heed all warnings and road closures throughout the event.
** there is potential for significant hydrological issues to continue due to the very wet antecedent conditions. Both flash flooding and river flooding will be a problem, with some area waterways remaining elevated for days beyond the main event. Be prepared in case you need to take action or need to head to higher ground. Have a way to receive warnings and always remember, turn around, don't drown! **
In addition to the rain, there is the potential for a period of strong, gusty winds from late tonight through sunday, especially along and east of the mogollon rim. The pressure gradient really tightens up in advance of the approaching trough and winds may gust 30-40 MPH at times. Event through the winds look to largely remain below advisory levels, with the very wet conditions some trees may be at risk of uprooting/falling.
The trough finally moves out of the area on monday, with a few lingering showers possible across eastern arizona. Conditions quickly dry out but with colder air arriving, some areas may see rain turn to snow before all is said and done. Best chances for any accumulating snow looks to be across the kaibab plateau, san francisco peaks, and buffalo pass/chuska mountains.
A ridge tries to build in behind the departing trough but a low remaining off to our north helps to flatten out the flow through the middle of the week. Overall, looks like to may be a brief period of warming and drying out before the next trough/cur-off low moves towards our area.
Sunday 01/06Z through monday 02/06Z...wdsprd MVFR/IFR through the taf period. Periods of IFR/LIFR possible in +ra and lows cigs over the higher terrain. Winds SE-SW 5-10 KTS through 15Z, then becoming S/SW 10-20 KTS with gusts 30-40 KTS.
Outlook...monday 02/06Z through wednesday 04/06Z...wdsprd MVFR/IFR in +ra/ra through 12Z-16Z monday, then VFR. Areas of LIFR possible in fg/low cigs over the higher terrain. Winds W/NW 5-15 KTS monday, becoming NW-NE monday night into tuesday.
Rest of today through monday...isolated showers expected mainly along and south of mogollon rim through the late afternoon hours of today, then steadily increasing through the evening and then expanding northward. By tonight, a major rainfall event will begin. Expect an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall, along with embedded thunderstorms. Lasting through monday morning. Southerly winds today, 10 to 20 MPH. Winds increase sunday, especially over the eastern zones, with southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH and gusts around 30 to 35 MPH, potentially reaching as high as 35 to 45 MPH in the higher terrain. A cold front will push most of the precipitation out of the region late monday morning or early monday afternoon. Winds are also expected to shift west through northwest around 10 to 20 MPH, with gusts around 25 MPH in eastern arizona.
Tuesday through thursday...a drier weather pattern is expected through this period. Easterly winds 5 to 15 MPH tuesday, turning back southwesterly 5 to 15 MPH for wednesday. Winds are then expected to become light thursday.