Radar — KOAX
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Nearest monitored road: North Broad Street (Secondary)
- widely scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon, tapering off early this evening.
- more redevelopment of storms expected late tonight into thursday morning, particularly along and south of i-80. Storms could have heavy rainfall which could worsen ongoing flooding in southwest iowa. - chance for more storms on friday, with a 5% chance that some could be strong to severe. Off and on rain chances persist into the weekend and early next week.
Issued at 202 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
17Z rap objective analysis depicts a strong 601 dam high in place over most of the southern plains and southeastern conus, while a potent longwave trof/cutoff low spins over the western coastal areas. This places much of the central and northern plains areas into a southwesterly flow regime. East of the cutoff low, a few shortwave trofs out in wyoming and eastern colorado have spun up sfc lows in those respective areas, with boundaries extending southeastward into northern kansas.
The bulk of this morning's showers and storms largely driven by low level warm and moisture advection have finally pushed off into iowa. A few more showers could pop up this afternoon (20-40%) as the h8 baroclinic zone slowly approaches the kansas/nebraska border. Otherwise, expect the low level stratus to remain in place through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Have lowered today's highs several degrees from nbm guidance, with most seeing them reach the mid 60S to low 70S.
Late this evening into early thursday morning, the h8 baroclinic zone will nudge slightly northward, and the attendant low level warm and moisture advection should spark off a few more storms. While some forecast bufkit soundings show elevated instability of 800- 1,100 j/kg, 0-6 km bulk SHEAR is largely lacking so not really expecting anything to become severe. However, still could see some threat of heavy rainfall, particularly across our far southern areas as warm cloud depths of 4,500 meters firmly remain in place, along with pwats well above the 90th percentile of oax sounding climatology. Href guidance suggests about a 20 to 30% chance for areas along and south of i-80 that could see an additional 1/2 inch or more of precip. This could potentially worsen any ongoing flood issues, particularly over southwest iowa. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few hours and see if a targeted flood watch for flash flooding may be needed. Pops increase after 03Z for areas along and south of i-80, peaking at 40 to 60% in far southeast nebraska and southwest iowa by early thursday morning.
In addition to rain chances, could also see some areas of fog develop primarily along and west of a line from norfolk to fremont to shenandoah after 04Z. While the light winds and residual moisture will promote fog development, the earlier mentioned showers could help visibilities not tank.
Showers gradually taper off by thursday afternoon as a weak sfc high tracks to our north. Temperatures warm to the 70S and low 80S. More showers and storms develop (50-70% chance), this time in northeast nebraska, after 04Z as a 40 KT llj points into the area.
Friday will see a stronger h5 shortwave eject from the rockies toward the western dakotas. The sfc low will finally nudge to the northeast, with the sfc warm front finally moving through the area. Temperatures should then warm to the mid to upper 80S. Behind the front, will see another unstable air mass of 1,500 to 2,000 j/kg of instability, and with some deep layer SHEAR of around 30-35 KTS, could see a few storms become severe in the evening. Forecast soundings show high lcls, which would likely imply some wind hazard. Pops remain at 50 to 70% for most of eastern nebraska into southwest iowa.
By early saturday morning, the main sfc low and cold front should push off to our southeast. Could still see some more showers and storms along the frontal feature early saturday morning (50-70% chance). Behind the front, most areas reach the low to mid 70S.
Sunday will see a more substantial h5 wave eject from colorado toward the area. The feature will help trigger or next round for rainfall, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. Periodic chances for more rainfall continue through tuesday as we see more disturbances traverse the area, but chances remain low at 15 to 30%.
Issued at 1221 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
At 17Z, IFR conditions have built into lnk/oma, with low-end MVFR at ofk. It is likely that these conditions will remain steady for the next several hours, with the exception of a few hours when -shra may again build in. There is some upstream sky clearing, and a small chance for a briefly-cloud-free period this afternoon, but more confident that all sites will maintain ceilings at least through the next 18 hours. Also expect ceiling heights to decrease with visibility also decreasing, especially after dark. Fog then becomes likely at all sites, with some potential for 1/4sm or less. Conditions gradually improve from 13-18Z.