Radar — KHGX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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- isolated thunderstorms continue today.
- more widespread thunderstorm chances thursday, particularly along the coast.
- generally hot and humid conditions persist into next week.
Issued at 1240 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Isolated onshore showers and thunderstorms are developing around matagorda bay. These may pop up farther inland this afternoon, however coverage only looks to be around 20% at best. Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the mid-to-upper 90S and heat indicies near 108. Any storms will taper off this evening and a quiet night is expected with lows in the upper 70S to low 80S. The tropical moisture surge remains expected for thursday with average model pwats around 2.25". Cams are slightly less aggressive with QPF than synoptic guidance, however the general consensus continues to be highest chances of showers and thunderstorms along the coast and gradually decreasing farther north, closer to the center of a strong upper ridge where the strongest capping will be present. Heavy downpours will be the main threat with these storms. Use caution on the morning/evening commutes.
The aforementioned ridge will stall over north central texas between a broad trough to the west and closed low tracking westward across florida. Combined with drier air on friday, even the usual onshore precipitation should hold off and we will see a brief reprieve from the higher humidities with most heat indicies staying below 100 across the area. Although the capping and lack of storm chances will continue into saturday, the humidity will return though with heat indicies returning to the triple-digits. The ridge will begin to weaken on sunday and the usual onshore diurnal convection should start to return, however the aforementioned upper low will weaken as well. Thus no major large-scale systems are expected to impact the area for the foreseeable future.
(18Z taf issuance) issued at 1240 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
SE winds persist across the area as the afternoon progresses. There is a slight chance for isol sh/ts, but not high enough to warrant it in any terminal sites. As the evening arrives diurnally driven winds become lgt and vrb to near calm. This brining the chance for br near cxo and other low-lying areas. The main impact tomorrow is an e'rly wave arriving brining increased tropical moisture. Coastal terminal, lbx/gls currently have a prob30 for tsra during the afternoon time frame. Currently there is uncertainty pf how far inland the convection will meander following along the sea breeze. A prob30 has been omitted in iah due to this. The conditions will continued to be monitored and amended as needed tonight and tomorrow.
Issued at 1240 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Due easterly winds near 15 KTS will persist through thursday morning, before increasing to around 20 KTS thereafter through early friday morning. Winds will diminish back to between 15-20 KTS friday and become lighter this week. Seas of 2 to 3 ft will continue today and increase to 4 to 6 ft thursday before gradually subsiding friday into the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today and will become more widespread thursday, particularly offshore.
College station (cll) 77 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 0 houston (iah) 79 93 77 94 / 10 30 0 0 galveston (gls) 83 91 84 90 / 50 60 0 0