Radar — KGSP
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: US-29 (Primary)
A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for all of our sc and northeast ga counties until 1 AM tonight, and one remains in effect until 9 PM for portions of western north carolina.
1. Severe thunderstorms will clear out of the area late evening, as a cold front passes through from the north. The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail, but there will also be an isolated tornado threat. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings. 2. Less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front wednesday through friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the weekend into early next week with shower and thunderstorm chances returning.
Key message 1: severe thunderstorms will clear out of the area late evening, as a cold front passes through from the north. The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail, but there will also be an isolated tornado threat. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings.
A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for all of our sc and ga counties and is in effect until 1 AM tonight. Storms have not completely cleared our nc counties, so the watch has been extended for the southern tier of nc counties and along i-85 to rowan until 9 PM this evening. The main threat continues to be damaging wind gusts, with a non-zero large hail and tornado threat. A very favorable environment will be in place for late july with 30-40 KTS of deep layer SHEAR, 2,000-3,000+ j/kg of sbcape, and 2,000- 2,500 j/kg of mlcape, so any storms that develop will have the potential to become severe. Any discrete supercells that develop initially will have the potential to produce large hail but the hail threat should gradually lower as cells attempt to converge more into a line as storms push southward, per the 12Z cams. The tornado threat and damaging wind threat will linger throughout the duration of the event as both discrete supercells and storms eventually trying to organize into more of a line will keep these hazards around. With low-level 0-1 km SHEAR ranging from mostly 10-20 KTS this afternoon and early evening, per 12Z high-res model soundings, and with ~100-200 j/kg of 0-1 srh expected, the tornado threat should remain low and isolated. Storms should clear the gsp cwa by around midnight.
Key message 2: less humid, drier, and cooler behind the front wednesday through friday. Even cooler conditions expected over the weekend into early next week with shower and thunderstorm chances returning.
The front will stall across the deep south/southeast during the rest of the workweek as surface high pressure builds into the region from the north. As a result, dry and cooler conditions will return wednesday into friday night. The front will slowly lift back northward this weekend into early next week allowing shower and thunderstorm chances to return. Even cooler temperatures are expected this weekend into monday, with highs ending up just below normal to start august.
At kclt and elsewhere: the main concern is ongoing convection that will impact kclt and the upstate sites over the next 2-3 hours, as a cold front passes through from the north. Will continue with a tempo at kclt. Upgraded to tempo at kgsp/kgmu, but keeping prob30 at kand, due to lower confidence. Once the storms clear out to the south, lingering mid and high clouds expected overnight, with winds shifting out of the N/NW. Latest guidance has backed off any fog or stratus potential overnight, so will continue to keep any mention out of the 00Z tafs. Dry conditions return behind the front overnight and will linger through wednesday. Marginally breezy N/NW winds possible across the area wednesday aftn.
Outlook: dry and mostly VFR through friday, with shower and thunderstorm chances and associated restrictions returning this weekend into early next week. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning, mainly in the mtn valleys.