Weather Lookup

Key Messages

* numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through late afternoon before tapering off this evening. Brief heavy rain and lightning will be possible.

* conditions dry out on monday with northerly breezes. Temperatures will start slightly below normal early in the week and climb slightly above normal by next weekend.

Discussion

Through next weekend.

Broad shield of subtropical moisture and steady moderate to locally heavy rainfall has shifted eastward this afternoon to become focused more across eastern arizona. Overnight rainfall totals across our region range from a tenth-of an inch or less across the western mojave desert and the valleys of inyo county, to roughly 0.25-0.75 across the eastern mojave desert including las vegas. The heaviest rainfall from the event has focused across eastern lincoln and mohave counties, where widespread rainfall totals of 1.5-4 inches have been observed. Heavy rain across the big sandy watershed have led to near record flows in burro creek and the big sandy which are ongoing this afternoon.

Modest instability developing ahead of the trough axis is currently fostering thunderstorm development across the death valley and amargosa valley regions that will continue to develop towards the spring mountains through the afternoon with localized heavy downpours. A few storms will also develop across northwest arizona along a developing precipitation axis. All this activity will gradually wane through the evening with the loss of daytime heating and the trough axis shifting east.

The remainder of the week ahead looks fairly benign with dry conditions. Temperatures will start out slightly below normal but climb slightly above normal by next weekend as heights rise across the region. Lookout for some patchy fog in the cooler valleys the next few mornings with ideal radiational cooling conditions taking place and elevated moisture levels persisting across the region.

Aviation

For harry reid...for the 06Z forecast package... Cigs around 6kft are expected to persist through 07Z before dissipating and becoming clear overnight. A light rain shower also can't be ruled out with the probability remaining less than 20%. Northwest winds around 8 knots are also expected to persist overnight and through monday morning before weakening and turning northeasterly in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern nevada, northwest arizona and southeast california...for the 06Z forecast package...a few isolated showers and cigs around 6kft will persist through 08Z over lincoln, clark, and mohave counties before skies clear. West to northwest winds will persist overnight around speeds generally less than 10 knots; however, kdag will see a few gusts exceeding 15 knots at times overnight. Just a few clouds around 10kft monday along with winds generally less than 10 knots, except for the lower colorado river valley where northerly gusts to 15 knots will occur.

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