Radar — PHKM
Surface Analysis — United States (CONUS)
Satellite
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The remnants of fausto will continue to pass hawaii to the north resulting in light winds and muggy conditions. Trades will quickly fill in tonight through early next week, becoming breezy to locally strong friday into saturday. Trades will ease to more typically breezy speeds early next week as the high weakens.
A band of light showers with a few isolated embedded heavier showers is currently moving west through the big island and maui county. This band is associated with the remnants of fausto and should move through the rest of the islands through tomorrow morning before exiting the region later in the morning. No major updates are expected.
Issued at 350 PM hst wed jul 29 2026 the remnant low of fausto, roughly 160 miles north of oahu, will continue to weaken while tracking west- northwest, north of the state. This low will continue keep light and variable winds across the state through tonight. A trailing cloud band with embedded light to locally heavy showers is currently moving from east to west across the big island. Elsewhere, the combination of light northerly winds and seabreezes is producing cloudy conditions with some embedded light showers along mountain slopes and over interior areas. Rainfall rates are less than .1 inches per hour with higher rates of .5 inches in some of the brief heavy showers. The band of scattered clouds and enhanced moisture will continue to move westward across the rest of the state tonight and through the morning hours thursday, increasing chances of showers. So far the small areas of heavy showers have been brief and not causing any flooding concerns.
Thursday, a strong high will develop far northeast of the state allowing breezy to locally strong winds to return by friday and saturday. Expect a more typical tradewind pattern with showers focused mainly along windward and mauka areas. Drier air will also filter allowing dewpoints to dip below 70 degrees by friday. Downslope winds under this drier and stable airmass could meet or exceed wind advisory criteria. We will continue to monitor all available guidance and observations.
Sunday into early next week trades will weaken to moderate to locally breezy levels as hurricane genevieve tracks far northeast of the state, disrupting the trade wind flow.
Light and variable winds expected early tonight for islands in the western half of the state with moderate trades beginning to return to the eastern portions of the state as former tropical cyclone fausto passes to the northwest of the islands. A weak band of moisture will affect mainly windward portions of maui county over the next several hours, then spread westward by thursday morning. Some MVFR conditions may develop due to lowered ceiling and visibility in shra as this band moves over the region. On oahu and kauai, ceilings over terrain should remain less extensive through most of the night.
Easterly trade winds will develop over the entire island chain thursday. Deeper moisture over the western end of the state may produce widespread ceilings over windward slopes of kauai and oahu. VFR will prevail leeward.
Variable to light northerly winds will gradually yield to east- southeast to easterly trades building in from east to west across the state tonight as fausto's remnant low exits off to the northwest. A small craft advisory (sca) is in effect through friday night as trades increase tonight, reaching strong levels for the windier waters of maui county and the big island. Trades strengthen through the weekend, which could necessitate an expansion of the sca to the rest of the coastal waters later on. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure develops on sunday, which will lead to weakening trade winds for early next week.
Nearshore pacioos buoys indicate continued decline in easterly swell. A small bump in short to medium period northeast swell from post-tropical cyclone fausto did not materialize as strong as forecast for north facing shores and flat to tiny surf can be expected to continue. Surf along E shores trend back up thursday night into the weekend due to a combination of building short period trade wind swell and renewed medium to long period E swell, this time emanating from hurricane genevieve in the E pac.
A medium period S swell building today and tonight will push S shore surf toward the summer average (5-6ft) for thursday. Surf then fades gradually through the weekend while a mix of small S swells maintains surf slightly below the seasonal average.
Issued at 350 PM hst wed jul 29 2026
Trade winds are expected to strengthen from east to west across the state thursday becoming breezy to locally strong friday into saturday. As the winds become strong late friday into saturday, a drier more stable airmass will filter in, increasing the potential for locally strong downsloping winds. While kbdi will remain below the critical thresholds there could still be some fire weather concerns.