Weather Lookup

What Has Changed

No significant changes.

Key Messages

1) dry and increasingly mild conditions continue into mid week.

2) increasingly likelihood for a wetting rain late in the week.

Discussion

.key message 1... The driest stretch of the year so far persists in response to confluent NW upper flow giving way to east coast upper ridging thru mid week. At the surface, high pressure gradually elongates offshore through mid week.

Slightly milder temps for tonight/early mon morning with light return flow and waa. This does bring the likelihood for patchy fog in addition to patchy frost conditions for outlying areas.

Conditions moderate to well above normal through mid week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return waa SW flow. High temps will incrementally rise from the lower to mid 60S on monday, to upper 60S/lower 70S (10 degrees above seasonable) by wed/thu. Similarly, overnight lows will rise from the 30S/40S mon morning to upper 50S/lower 60 by thu morning (close to normal high temps for parts of the area this time of year)

.key message 2... Increasing nwp/ai model agreement in NW pac troughing slowly moving east-southeastward early-mid next week, phasing with incoming upstream aleutian trough, and then pivoting towards the eastern US fri/sat. Greater lean of ensembles over the last 24 hrs towards central US trough remaining influenced by the northern stream and approaching as a closed upper low towards the NE/mid atlantic US east coast late week/weekend (while phasing in a developing offshore SE US trough/closed low).

Increasing confidence on a frontal system, possibly interacting with offshore low pressure system, affecting the area with a wetting rainfall late in the week into the weekend. Nbm probabilities have increased to 70-80 percent for fri-sat period, but still inherently lower predictability on exact timing and sensible weather details this far out. More details as the week progresses.

Aviation — 06Z Monday Through Friday

High pressure remains in control through the period as it slowly slides just to the south and southeast late monday into monday night.

VFR throughout the taf period.

Winds will become light and variable at non coastal terminals overnight, remaining so into the morning. Monday, SW winds develop and get to 7-12 KT towards midday and through the afternoon. Winds remain SW into monday night.

Ny metro (kewr/klga/kjfk/kteb) taf uncertainty...

No unscheduled amd expected.

.outlook for 06Z tuesday through friday...

Late monday night: VFR. SW winds becoming light.

Tuesday: VFR, SW winds.

Wednesday: VFR, SW to S winds.

Thursday: VFR more likely early, with the probability of MVFR or lower higher late in the day and at night for showers with MVFR or lower cond developing.

Friday: sub VFR possible in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/N90

Marine

Sub-sca conds continue on all waters through thursday as high pressure maintains a weak pressure gradient.

Next chance of sca conditions on the ocean potentially fri/sat dependent on evolution of frontal/low pressure system.