Radar — KBGM
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: East Seneca Street (Primary)
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
1) mostly dry conditions are expected through midweek with temperatures running well above average for early november.
2) the next opportunity for rainfall looks to be thursday into friday. Temperatures are expected to trend lower late in the week, but still remain above average.
Key message 1...
High pressure overhead early this morning will slowly shift eastward this afternoon and evening and the flow aloft will gradually turn more westerly. As a result, temperatures will start to moderate today with highs in the upper 50S to mid 60S. A warming trend continues monday through midweek with upper- level ridging building in aloft and the flow becoming more south-southwesterly. Afternoon highs monday through thursday will be running well above average in the 60S with some valley locations even making a run at the lower 70S, especially wednesday and thursday. This is more typical for mid-to-late september than the start of november. The same trend goes for overnight low temperatures as lows go from the 30S and 40S tonight and monday night into the 50S again by midweek. While a couple of sprinkles can't be ruled out during the midday and afternoon hours tuesday around the finger lakes and lake plain as a warm front lifts through the area, the next opportunity for more meaningful rainfall looks to be thursday into friday.
Key message 2...
As mentioned above, the next chance for any appreciable rain looks to be thursday into friday. A deep upper trough will move into the central u.S. With a surface low expected to form over the upper midwest. The upper trough is expected to slowly push east, while the surface low looks to gradually pass by to our north and west, but drags a frontal boundary through the area. Model guidance has trended a little slower over the past 24 hours with regards to the arrival of showers thursday and the speed of the front, so some uncertainty remains this far out. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance also suggests a secondary low forms near the mid-atlantic coast come friday. Temperatures look to lower a bit late week and into next weekend, but still remain above average for this time of year.
Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours across the region. Elm may have some fog develop as temperatures are already approaching the cross over temperature. Added a tempo for fog at elm, it may last a little past 12Z if it does develop.
Outlook...
Sunday night through wednesday night...mainly VFR, potential for morning fog at kelm.
Thursday...scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.