Radar — KBGM
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: East Seneca Street (Primary)
No major changes with this forecast package.
1) warmer and more humid with showers through thursday.
2) pleasant weather for friday through most of saturday.
3) a more active pattern returns starting later saturday.
Key message 1...
Increasing humidity and temperatures are expected through thursday with a warm front crossing just north of the area earlier in the day. Within this warmer and more humid airmass a few scattered showers will be possible through tonight, but forcing is limited for any more organized activity. Showers will increase in coverage starting early thursday morning as both a weak sfc low and cold front approach and cross the region through the day. With PWAT values increasing close to 2.00 inches during the day thursday, heavier downpours will be possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop with increasing instability. The greatest potential for thunderstorms is expected for the southwestern portions of the area, where some slightly better instability is expected. Showers will end from west to east during the first half of the evening hours thursday as the cold front associated with the system tracks east across the area. Temperatures ahead of this cold front will warm to the mid 70S, with some upper 70S to near 80 possible for areas where there maybe more breaks in the showers and clouds.
Rainfall amounts on thursday are expected to range from around a third to half an inch, with some locally higher amounts possible with thunderstorms that develop.
Key message 2...
Behind the passing cold front late thursday, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the region. High pressure will track southeast across canada and into new england friday through saturday. This will result in mostly sunny/clear skies friday into early saturday morning. With the cooler airmass associated with the sfc high, temperatures for both friday and saturday will only reach the mid 60S to low 70S.
Clouds will start to increase on saturday afternoon ahead of the next approaching system. More on that below.
Key message 3...
Showers will make a return to the region starting saturday evening as a sfc low tracks out of the tennessee valley, northeast to the mid-atlantic coast through the day on sunday. This sfc low will pull moisture north as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is still some uncertainty on the track of the sfc low and timing of the rain overall with the sfc high over the region earlier in the weekend providing some resistance to the incoming low. However, with that said the potential for widespread rainfall for most of sunday is possible. Rain/showers will taper off sunday evening.
Forecast guidance is not in the best agreement for the potential for showers from monday onward next week, with at least the chance for showers each day from at least one model. This is just an indicator that drier weather is less likely for next week at this far out.
A swath of overcast skies is currently present across cny, bringing MVFR ceilings to many areas. These conditions should last into the early evening.
Some patchy clearing this evening into the early overnight hours combined with light boundary layer winds and high moisture at the surface will allow for fog to develop across the region. The best chance for IFR and lower restrictions will be at elm, where guidance has LIFR fog settling in through most of the night, then lifting to IFR as some moderate rain showers move in thru the morning hours. Ith/bgm/syr/rme are showing some signs for fog development and IFR restrictions tonight as well, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR fog at this time. These terminals should see IFR restrictions set in when rain moves overhead during the early morning hours, and keep these restrictions through the morning hours. Timing of rain onset is still a little uncertain, with the possibility of some scattered showers ahead of the main swath of rain. If rain moves in earlier, IFR restrictions should start earlier.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...scattered showers and associated restrictions develop.
Thursday...scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions, especially in the afternoon.
Friday and saturday...mainly VFR.
Saturday night and sunday...rain expected for much of the period. Periods of IFR restrictions possible.
Monday... Scattered rain showers and associated restrictions possible.