Radar — KJAX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: US-17 (Primary)
For the latest NE fl and SE ga daily key messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/NWS-jax-briefing.pdf
- dangerously hot & humid weather continues. Extreme heat warning & heat advisory today, heat indices of 110-115 possible
- strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts of 50-70 MPH, frequent lightning strikes, and localized flooding due to heavy downpours are possible
- numerous mainly afternoon & evening tstorms thursday through monday. Daily rounds of heavy downpours could result in localized flooding
Main highlights for today and tonight:
- near record heat with dangerous heat indices of 108-115f today and extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are now in effect.
- scattered severe storms late this afternoon through tonight with damaging winds of 50-70 MPH possible along with heavy downpours and localized flooding
Warm temps early this morning around 80f will help set the stage for extreme heat this afternoon as breezy west-southwest flow ahead of southward moving frontal boundary will provide for good mixing and enough sunshine to push max temps into the middle to upper 90S by early this afternoon, which will combine with slightly higher dew point temps today into the mid/upper 70S, which will push heat indices into the 110-115f range and have posted an extreme heat warning for most of NE fl and SE ga near the fl/ga border and left the heat advisory headlines in place across inland SE ga and flagler and marion counties where heat indices may stay in the 108-112f range. For now this max temp/heat index forecast should remain on track as long as the convective debris clouds over the region dissipate this morning and afternoon convection holds off until at least the 2-4 PM time frame. Some hi-res models develop convection by the early afternoon, which would lead to the forecast falling short of reaching the current extreme heat headlines in place.
Due to the extreme heat, pre-frontal strong to severe storms are still expected to break out across SE ga by early afternoon and across NE fl by the mid-late afternoon hours and with high mixed CAPE values of 3000-4000j, expect scattered severe storms with the main threat of damaging downburst winds of 50-70 MPH possible and with pwats of 2 inches or more, expect intense and heavy downpours with some training of storm activity from west to east which will lead to localized flood threat, mainly in urban areas due to the ongoing drought across most of the region.
These strong to severe storms will be ongoing in waves from west to east as they move slowly southward through SE ga during the early evening hours and continuing across NE fl through the overnight hours. The severe threat will slowly lessen after midnight with loss of surface heating, but the heavy rainfall threat will continue as the southward progression of storms across NE fl slows towards morning and will continue to push off the NE gulf and into inland NE fl impacting the ocf/gnv metro areas and i-75 corridor through sunrise. Temps still above normal but falling into the lower/middle 70S SE ga and into the mid/upper 70S NE fl in the more rain cooled air mass from storm activity.
Main highlights this period:
- rounds of showers and thunderstorms, isolated strong to severe storms possible
- heat advisory possible thursday for northeast fl & the coast
Frontal boundary will settle essentially right over southeast ga counties on thursday, moving very little into thursday night. Numerous to widespread convection will be expected accordingly, especially from about i-10 southward in NE fl thanks to some drier air invading southeast ga north of the boundary. Similar to wednesday, heavy downpours and strong downbursts will be possible for any showers and storms that develop during the afternoon to evening hours. Guidance is in good agreement that some showers and isolated t'storms linger into at least the start of thursday night as well, mainly over southern areas.
Even despite numerous convection over northeast fl, parts of northeast fl and the coast may flirt with heat advisory criteria thanks to the higher dew points/humidity south of the front. Mid 90S will be common from near the i-10 corridor north into southeast ga, and low 90S further south. Lows thursday night will be mild, though not as mild as the few night previous: generally in the low to mid 70S.
The frontal boundary nudges a bit northward on friday as a weak upper ridge builds over the region and surface ridging also strengthens slightly. This will overall result in a similar regime with respect to convective coverage, as some drier air aloft lingering over interior ga will continue to focus activity across northeast fl as well as towards the i-95 corridor near the sea breeze in southwest flow. Isolated strong to severe downbursts once will be possible, as high temperatures top out in a similar range to thursday. Also similar to thursday night, friday night will likely feature some lingering showers and isolated t'storm into at least the first half of the night with similar lows in the low to mid 70S.
Main highlights this period:
- daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, isolated strong to severe storms possible
The pattern looks to remain active for the upcoming weekend and likely into next week as well, as a frontal zone lingers just north of the region and energy from another upper trough affects the southeastern states. This regime as well as abundant moisture each day will support at least numerous showers and t'storms daily, as well as strong downburst and heavy rainfall potential. Temperatures overall trend near to slightly below normal during the long term period given the more active convective pattern.
VFR conditions will continue overnight and into the start of wednesday with increasing coverage of thunderstorms wednesday afternoon and potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the terminals. Wednesday, a front will approach the area from the north with breezy west to southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots across the northeast fl taf sites as the strong flow will not favor the atlantic seabreeze moving onshore. Strong heating and an approaching wave aloft associated with the cold front will lead to increasing chances for thunderstorms. Have vcts after 18Z wednesday with prob30 groups at this time for strong thunderstorms producing wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR restrictions from very heavy downpours. Wind gusts in the afternoon may need to be adjusted upwards in subsequent forecasts due to potential for isolated severe storms. There is potential for another round of storms after the end of the period from 00Z-06Z wednesday night into very early thursday. After the storms, VFR conditions will resume late in the taf period.
Active weather pattern develops today with a surge of southwest winds to small craft exercise caution levels which will continue through tonight. A frontal boundary will then sink into the deep south late this week, with this feature becoming stationary during the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible well in advance of this front this afternoon and evening, with stronger storms potentially producing damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across the northeast florida waters on thursday and friday, with less coverage currently forecast for the georgia waters. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread all of our local waters during the upcoming weekend. Outside of expected thunderstorm activity, southwesterly winds will prevail with caution conditions likely through the upcoming weekend.
Rip currents: low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the end of the week at NE fl and SE ga beaches with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet due to the offshore flow.
- heat indices up to 110-115f today
- patchy high daytime dispersions inland through friday
- isolated to widely scattered severe storms possible today
A frontal boundary will slide southward throughout the day today, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening ahead of the front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, with strong gusts of 40-60 MPH being the primary potential hazard. Before the onset of the showers and storms, hot and more humid conditions will be expected, with an extreme heat warning in effect for most of the area surrounding the i-10 corridor, and heat advisories elsewhere. Breezy southwesterly flow in the low levels will result in good dispersions for most as daytime mixing will be very efficient. Some patchy high dispersions will be possible as well, especially over southeast ga. An active pattern looks to persist into this weekend as another frontal boundary approaches the region. Mixing of slightly drier air over interior southeast ga through friday will drop minrh values to around 35-40%, but above any critical thresholds.
Fog potential: significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. As mentioned above, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Gusts up to 40-60 MPH will be possible in these storms as well as erratic winds in/nearby any storms.
Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures at our designated climate sites on wednesday:
July 29: kjax: 101/2025 80/1877 kgnv: 100/2025 79/2025 kamg: 99/2025 77/2017 kcrg: 101/2016 79/2017
Amg 98 74 96 73 / 30 40 30 10 ssi 96 77 96 78 / 60 60 30 20 jax 98 76 95 74 / 50 50 60 40 sgj 96 76 93 75 / 30 40 60 50 gnv 95 76 92 73 / 40 50 70 40 ocf 92 75 90 75 / 40 60 80 60