Radar — KLSX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: West McCarty Street (Primary)
- intermittent sprinkles/light rain showers are expected this evening with temperatures in the 60S.
- another system will affect the region monday night through wednesday with intermittent rain and a few thunderstorms. Widespread beneficial rainfall is expected with this system. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
- temperatures cool gradually through the end of the week, though highs are expected to remain near to above normal for early november.
Issued at 247 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
A negatively tilted short wave moving though the eastern plains and lower mississippi valley is producing clouds an occasional sprinkles this afternoon across our forecast area. The wave will continue to move northeast through the mississippi valley tonight into sunday morning, and is forecast to be over the ohio valley by sunday afternoon/evening. Low level moisture convergence along and ahead of the 850mb reflection of the wave will continue to produce intermittent light rain and sprinkles tonight into sunday morning, and then short wave ridging will build across missouri and illinois late in the morning into the afternoon which will bring the rain to an end. The remainder of the short-range looks dry as the short wave ridge drifts east through sunday night. Temperatures through the period remain mild under expansive cloud cover and light east to southeast flow with lows main in the mid to upper 50S tonight and sunday night and highs around 65 to 70 sunday afternoon.
Issued at 247 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
The progressive, high amplitude pattern continues into next week as another trough moves across the rockies sunday night and into the great plains monday. Lee-side cyclogenesis forced by the trough produces a strong low level low over the great plains monday, and the system moves slowly into the midwest by tuesday morning. Deterministic guidance shows some differences in the speed and amplitude of the trough as it drifts northeast through midweek, but those differences do not look to affect the sensible weather at the surface across missouri and illinois too much. Showers and a few thunderstorms develop ahead of the cold front associated with this system on monday over the eastern plains and move east along with the cold front as it drifts through the midwest. Current thinking is that rain will hold off in our area until monday night, and then will move slowly east across our area from after 06Z tuesday through early wednesday morning. While deep-layer SHEAR ahead of the front is forecast to be in the 45-60KT range, persistent clouds and showers will put the damper on heating and instability. While there will likely be occasional rumbles of thunder monday night through tuesday night the lack of instability should minimize the severe threat. Additionally, a persistent blocking surface ridge along the gulf coast will keep the richest gulf moisture from moving up into the mid mississippi valley ahead of the cold front. While p-wats are relatively high for early november in the 1.5 to 1.8 range ahead of the front, the lack of instability should also reduce the threat for heavy rainfall as it does with severe storms. This period of rainfall through tuesday night/early wednesday should therefore be beneficial with little if any threat for flooding.
The details in the model guidance diverge further after the front finally moves through on wednesday, but the generally unsettled pattern looks to continue. Another wave moves across the plains and midwest later in the week, though there may not be much moisture in the wake of wednesday's fropa for this next system to tap into. The short wave does look like it will amplify the long wave pattern over the eastern 1/2 to 2/3S of the united states for friday and saturday. This allows cooler air to filter into the conus east of the rockies bringing highs down from the low and mid 70S during the first 1/2 of the week to the mid 60S for the latter half. In fact, nbm max temps are likely being affected by warm bias-corrected guidance it incorporates, so highs later in the week may end up cooler than currently forecast.
Issued at 1106 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
VFR conditions will continue into the early morning hours until scattered showers move into the region lowering ceilings to MVFR. Showers will primarily impact the st. Louis metro terminals, but a stray shower at the central mo terminals cannot be ruled out. Showers will taper off by mid to late morning, which will cause the ceilings in the metro to lift slightly but remain MVFR. Sunday night flight conditions will likely deteriorate further due to lowering ceilings and drizzle/patchy fog, but it is uncertain by how much.