Radar — KLSX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: West McCarty Street (Primary)
- near to slightly below normal temperatures (and humidity) are forecast wednesday through thursday.
- the next chance (60-80%) of showers and a few thunderstorms is from late thursday night - friday night.
Issued at 221 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
A midlevel shortwave trough is currently evident on goes-19 satellite imagery over west-central missouri. This feature is slightly faster than anticipated 24 hours ago, and as a result, has led to thicker clouds farther east into our area. This has helped keep temperatures a bit cooler than forecast, particularly in/near central missouri. Clouds have been thickest and most persistent in those locations where temperatures are only in the low to mid 80S in some spots as of 2 PM. The heat advisory has been trimmed back from the northwest due to these cooler temperatures. Farther east/southeast, there have been enough breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to climb to near or above the 90 degree mark. With anomalously high dewpoints still lingering back behind the surface cold front, this has led to heat index values in the 100-105 degree range with a few isolated spots above 105 degrees. No changes to heat headlines for the remainder of the area and they are on track to expire at 7 PM.
Dry conditions are expected to continue across much of the area, though some light rain may continue to just clip parts of central/southeast missouri. Cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm or two, but better chances for thunderstorms appear to be closer to the missouri-arkansas border closer to the synoptic cold front. Overnight, look for winds to veer more to the northeast, bringing in cooler and less humid air into the bi-state area. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast day and night wednesday through thursday with dewpoints (relative humidity) values also closer to the 25th percentile. Dry weather is also expected areawide as a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the mid- mississippi valley.
Issued at 221 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
(thursday night - sunday)
Increasing chances of rain and a few storms are forecast beginning late thursday night as a midlevel shortwave trough moves into the mid-missouri valley/upper midwest. This feature has trended a bit more to the north over the past 36-48 hours, and has consequently shifted the best threat for widespread (and potentially more significant) rainfall totals northward as well. It still looks like our area will likely see at least some rainfall though with a slow-moving cold frontal passage, but the higher totals are likely to stay to the north where the stronger mid/upper level forcing is expected to reside. Probabilities for at least 1" of rain through sunday on the lref are in the 20-40% range, and even the 95th percentile is at or below 2.5". Therefore, it does not appear that heavy rainfall/flash flooding is likely at this time. There also does not appear to be any severe threat with limited instability most likely. GEFS chances for 1000+ j/kg of sbcape stay below 50% on friday afternoon/evening, and drop further this weekend.
Temperature wise, below normal daytime readings with values closer to normal overnight are expected with plenty of cloud cover through the period along with rain chances. Spread in the nbm iqr is pretty low even out through sunday, generally at or below 5 degrees. Even the 75th percentile of the nbm shows below normal high temperatures, further increasing confidence in the forecast below normal highs.
(sunday night - next tuesday)
Forecast uncertainty increases heading into early next week with respect to how the midlevel shortwave trough evolves. More members from the grand ensemble show it cutting off (~80%) looking at the 500-hpa height clusters, but exactly where is uncertain. A majority of members from the cutoff cluster show it near the lower ohio valley, though a smaller percentage are farther to the west. Assuming the low is to our southeast, continued cool temperatures would be expected along with dry weather. However, if the low is cutoff farther west, increased rain chances would exist. Either scenario though would continue the below normal temperatures, particularly during the day.
Issued at 1041 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
Patches of MVFR stratus are currently moving southwestward away from ksus, kstl, kcps. There is a low chance for brief impacts at the start of the taf period from this stratus, particularly at ksus; otherwise, dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the taf period at all local terminals.