Radar — KGRR
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: North Park Street (Primary)
- dry through thursday night
- rain returns to the forecast for friday through saturday night
- temperatures near to slightly above normal through forecast
Issued at 236 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
- dry through thursday night
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the north tonight. The center of the high at the present time (18Z) is over western lake superior. The high slowly moves south through wednesday night and will be centered over lower michigan thursday morning. The high then moves away to the southeast thursday night. Subsidence and a lack of deep moisture will allow US to keep a dry forecast through thursday night. Night time lows will be in the 50S to lower 60S with day time highs in the low 80S. Very pleasant weather for mid summer.
- rain returns to the forecast for friday through saturday night
The high sliding away will allow moisture return to occur on the back side. Bufkit overviews of moisture in the vertical are fairly stark with little to no moisture in place through thursday night. On friday deep moisture surges back in through the depth of the atmosphere. The deep moisture will be in place from friday evening through saturday evening. Our highest chances for precipitation will be during this time frame (50-60 pct), but could see this needing to be nudged up with time.
A healthy mid level shortwave trough will swing through the region moving directly overhead friday night and saturday. The surface reflection will be well south of our area with the low passing from illinois into the ohio valley. If the low was in closer proximity we would have higher chances for rain. Given the south track of the low, moisture at the surface is not exceptional by mid summer standards. Low to mid 60S dew points are all we look to muster which results in limited mucape/instability. Mucape values for the most part remain below 700 j/kg through the time the trough is swinging through. There appears to be a brief window sunday morning where low level moisture lingers in the south where we may crest 1,000 j/kg. Bottom line the pattern looks conducive for occasional showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. Not expecting severe weather at this time. Dry weather returns for sunday evening into early next week.
- temperatures near to slightly above normal through forecast
Temperatures through the period look to be seasonal for the most part with highs in the 80S almost every day and lows for the most part in the 60S. We will see some 50S as well for lows. Normal highs are low 80S and normal lows are around 60. 850mb temperatures in the middle teens c lend credence to the forecast temperatures.
Issued at 723 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
VFR is likely through wednesday with 5 to 10 knot winds between NW and NE. Skies are expected to clear overnight, then daytime cumulus development is favored again with bases around 5,000 feet. There may be 20 knots of wind SHEAR below 1,000 feet between 02 Z and 07 Z, as winds at 1,000 feet may be 36025KT.
Issued at 236 PM EDT tue jul 28 2026
Waves are in the 3 to 5 foot range at the buoys as of 1-2PM. Winds are just now beginning to crest the 20 knot threshold at a few lakeshore ob sites so we expect the wave field to increase as well. Will stick with the going forecast of waves peaking early this evening in the 4 to 7 foot range. Highest waves will be found this evening south of grand haven and especially holland. Will maintain the small craft advisory and the beach hazards statement through 200AM. The far southern zone, south of south haven, may see waves hang on a bit longer than 200AM, but not by much more than an hour or so.
A very brief advancing high event is possible wednesday afternoon where waves may build to around 3 feet in the late afternoon and early evening. We will keep an eye on this potential wave event. High pressure will bring a period of lower winds and waves from wednesday evening lasting into friday morning.