Radar — KGRR
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: North Park Street (Primary)
- slight chance for rain tonight and tomorrow
- warm and wet weather ahead
- chances for rain midweek onward
Issued at 244 PM EDT sat oct 31 2026
- slight chance for rain tonight and tomorrow
Current radar has light precipitation streaming through lower michigan this afternoon. Most of if is bifurcating the region, with a band of scattered showers moving north of the i 96 corridor and a band moving along and south of the i 94 corridor. As most of the region is dry, it will take a bit to moisten up the lower levels for any rain to accumulate. Any precipitation will be falling from a cloud deck around 5 to 10kft. Soundings show fairly dry air above and below, so any rain falling will have to saturate the lower levels. All this is to say, with a lack of moisture, and while there is scattered showers possible, any rain that does fall will be light at best through the early evening. More moisture will advect in tonight, mainly after 10 PM, however while there is an increase, it remains sparse and all in told, total QPF will struggle to be measurable in most locations.
A weak, divergent trough will be squeezing its way through the upper level ridge through tomorrow. And while there is some mid level moisture which will result in some clouds, the divergent pattern and dry lower levels will keep most, if not all, precipitation at bay.
- warm and wet weather ahead
As stated in previous discussions, the pattern is changing. A deep upper trough will trek across the conus early week, making its way into the great lakes region on tuesday. A warm conveyor belt will bring moisture up from the gulf out ahead of this system, and as it moves into the great lakes the models continue to have it become more positively tilted which indicates a more progressive, fast moving, nature. Latest naefs ensembles have pwats upwards of 1.25 inches which is highly anomalous for this time of year. Capes remain fairly low so thunder is not expected. However, give the fast, moist nature of this system, a period of heavy rainfall are not out of the question. With that said, there is a concern for leaf clogged storm drains tuesday into wednesday morning. While it is fairly far out, there is the potential of 0.5 to 1.0 of rainfall in a short period of time.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue with highs in the upper 60S to low 70S through midweek. While temperatures should drop into the low 60S through the latter half of the week, overall temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
- chances for rain midweek onward
Beyond the above mentioned system, the models diverge on a consensus beyond midweek. However, there is a signal for successive waves which could allow for periods of showers to be possible, currently only a 20 to 30 percent chance.
Issued at 135 AM EDT sun nov 1 2026
Chance of VFR at all terminals through 12Z is 95 percent. Chance of VFR at all terminals through 18Z is 90 percent.
A small area of precipitation noted on radar moving across southwest lower mi has resulted in reports of light rain at some terminals, including grr. However, ceilings remain very high, greater than 8000 ft agl, with significant sub-cloud evaporation, so precipitation accumulations will remain spotty and light.
Some models, such as the HRRR, suggest that another batch of light showers could move northward into extreme southwest lower mi, possibly affecting azo/mkg/grr with another round of light rain later this morning. However, this is a low probability, non- impactful event not worthy of mention in the tafs. Precipitation is not expected this afternoon into tonight.
Issued at 244 PM EDT sat oct 31 2026
Winds will shift to the south with conditions below scy through most of monday.