Radar — KUEX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (Central)
Satellite
- now that very isolated/spotty "afternoon heating" driven storms have all but died, our next main chance of showers/storms arrives late overnight into wed AM...as general consensus of high-res models depict a northwest-southeast oriented corridor of convection developing within mainly the southwestern 2/3rds of our forecast area (cwa). Severe storms unlikely, but localized heavy rain of 1-3" possible.
- additional upper level disturbances moving through the area wednesday evening through thursday night keep shower/storm chances in the forecast...mainly focused on the evening/overnight hours. Some storms thu-thu night could be marginally severe.
- forecast dries back out of for the end of the week into the start of next week...highs generally remain in the 80S-near 90.
Issued at 330 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
Currently through tonight...
Seeing dry conditions across the forecast area this afternoon, following a round of showers and thunderstorms which passed through last evening through early this morning. This disturbance brought measurable rainfall to basically the entire forecast area...though a good chunk were only a few hundredths to around 0.15 of an inch. Main winners were along a narrow swath running roughly from smith center, ks up into southern york county...where totals were closer to 0.4-1.0 inch (isolated spots exceeded 1 inch). This system helped cool temps a bit, and though dewpoints remain in the low-mid 70S...heat index values are an improvement over the past few days, sitting more in the 90S. Upper air and satellite data show little change in the overall pattern across the conus...ridging continues to dominate the high plains/central conus, keeping our flow west- northwesterly. The surface pattern across the area remains pretty weak, which has kept winds for most locations on the light/variable side.
Seeing some scattered thunderstorms developing off to our west over the rockies in co up into the wy/NE border area, where steeper lapse rates here at peak-heating lie. The WNW flow aloft will push this activity east the rest of this afternoon/evening...although not very quickly. Kept the rest of this afternoon into the evening hours dry...models are in decent agreement showing this activity gradually fading the further east it pushes, eventually losing daytime heating and there isn't quite as much instability as was in place the past few days. After midnight, models are showing the potential for increased storm development...running roughly WNW to ESE across central/southern portions of the forecast area, along increased (although still not strong) forcing along lower to mid-level boundaries/convergence. Models vary on just how much coverage there is...kept the pops on the lower side (20-30 percent), but broad. Not expecting this activity to be severe...though instability remains in place, the overall forcing is weak and deep layer SHEAR looks to struggle to even get to 20KTS.
Wednesday and thursday...
The main story through the mid-week period continues to lie with a couple more upper level shortwave disturbances passing through...overall there hasn't been any notable changes in the models/forecast.
Think that wednesday will be similar to today...in that there could be some activity left over from tonight lingering around mainly southern/eastern portions of the area during the early- mid morning hours...with the majority of the daytime hours being dry. Not a lot of change in the upper level pattern, with the persistent ridging keeping that west-northwesterly flow in place. At the surface, models are showing winds turning more southeasterly...with speeds around 10-15 MPH, some show the potential for gusts near 20 MPH in spots. Forecast highs also similar to today in the upper 80S to low 90S.
Little more uncertainty remains wednesday night on through thursday night with the timing/coverage of precipitation associated with additional disturbances moving through. Models vary more on wed night into thursday, some more generous with activity, others showing a smaller swath developing with weaker forcing. Models remain pretty consistent showing a stronger wave moving through thu evening-night...bringing better potential for storms, some of which could be strong-severe (the entire area remains in the SPC day 3 marginal risk area). Forecast highs a bit more of a range from the mid 80S-mid 90S...driven by some models keeping activity lingering around longer into the day than others.
Friday on into early next week...
Forecast for the end of the week into the start of the new work week dries back out. The main impact from the disturbance moving through thursday night is with the westward shift of the main upper level ridge axis, bringing more amplified north- northwesterly flow to the central plains at least through the weekend. Models showing an overall lack of disturbances through the weekend, with some low pops returning around tuesday. Breezy NNE winds are forecast for friday in the wake of a sfc frontal passage...but at this point that front doesn't look to have a notable downward impact on temps or dewpoints, with highs in the mid-80S to near 90. Forecast highs through the weekend on into monday are similar to friday, mainly in the 80S.
Issued at 836 PM CDT tue jul 28 2026
For kgri/kear airports: - general overview (including winds): although VFR ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free conditions are likely/expected through the majority of the period, there are some uncertainties and a few concerns in play as outlined below. As for winds, assuming no enhanced thunderstorm outflow materializes, winds should be a minimal issue throughout the period. Sustained speeds should average at- or-below 10KT, with direction mainly easterly to southeasterly.
- main potential concerns and associated uncertainties: 1) possible low ceiling and/or visibility: at this time, have maintained VFR in prevailing groups. However, some models/guidance are suggesting that at least an MVFR (possibly lower) ceiling could materialize late tonight...and if so could even stick around well into the first part of the daytime wednesday before lifting and/or scattering out. It's also possible that overnight showers/thunderstorms "disrupt" potential low stratus from forming, so this is not a high confidence scenario. As a result, for now have only "hinted" at potential sub-VFR ceiling in scattered lower cloud groups. It's a similar story with regard to possible sub-VFR visibility, as either sporadic heavier rain and/or at least light fog could also show it's hand at some point late tonight into wednesday morning...just a lot of uncertainty on likelihood.
2) possible rain/thunderstorms: recent higher-res model runs have become increasingly-suggestive of of a northwest-southeast oriented corridor of convection developing at least in the general vicinity of kgri/kear overnight into wed AM...particularly between 08-14Z. Again, though, this is not yet considered high confidence, so have opted to introduce only basic prob30 groups at this time. Should storms form, they are not expected to be severe, with heavy downpours and associated reduced visibility the main potential concern.