Radar — KMRX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-441 (Primary)
Updated at 225 PM EDT wed sep 16 2026
- above normal temperatures persist through the forecast period. Slight cooling into next week.
- most areas will remain dry this week, however, increasing chances of showers each day in the higher terrain as we approach the weekend. A few valley locations in northeastern tn into va may also see a shower or storm starting tomorrow, but more low to medium chances friday into the weekend.
Issued at 225 PM EDT wed sep 16 2026
Chattanooga's streak of 90f+ continues. Unfortunately my advanced technique of shaking fist at sun is not working to relieve our collective burden of summer overstaying its welcome. Really there's no significant changes in the forecast cycle. Can't rule out a random cumulus cloud letting out a shower over the plateau/tall western ridges today, then we turn to a diurnally forced scattered shower/thunderstorm pattern as the ridge gradually begins its western trek and better atmospheric moisture returns to our local vertical profiles. Friday into next week are best chances for scattered showers and storms, again with it being this hot out, think summer pattern where valley locations are both unpredictable and may require some luck to get rainfall.
The bummer aspect of diurnally forced storms is the best coverage is usually right at or right after peak heating, so not particularly expecting storms to prevent highs from occurring, and more likely to occur in the high plateau or mountain terrain. Also any relief from temperatures from afternoon storms comes with the tradeoff of post storm humidity.
Next week with the upper ridge centered to our west but still generally above average h500 heights, we'll be above normal and hot (i AM so sorry chattanooga but you're still stuck in the 90S) but slightly less hot than right now. I don't think we'll see the same and definitely not identical coverage of storms each day over the next week, but everyone will have at least an opportunity to wet their driveways. As far as weather hazards out of the storms, both bulk SHEAR and midlevel lapse rates don't appear to be of significance over the next week, so really the only hazards would be typical thunderstorms: lightning, maybe a gusty wind, and a nonzero risk for heavy rains.
(18Z tafs) issued at 113 PM EDT wed sep 16 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day and much of the night. Clouds around 4 kft this afternoon will be predominantly scattered, but could go broken for a brief time. Fog tonight at tri is uncertain, with mixed signals from the models. Later forecasts will likely need to make adjustments, but for now will include a period of MVFR vis from 09-13Z.
Chattanooga airport, tn 72 97 73 98 / 10 10 0 10 knoxville mcghee tyson airport, tn 70 94 72 94 / 0 10 10 20 oak ridge, tn 70 94 71 94 / 0 20 10 20 tri cities airport, tn 66 90 68 89 / 0 50 20 50