Radar — KEAX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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- above-normal temperatures hold through the end of the week.
- showers and storms are likely (60-80%) along a cold front late saturday afternoon through sunday.
- a couple of storms could be strong to severe saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall are the main hazards.
- cooler temperatures arrive behind the front next week.
Issued at 204 PM CDT thu sep 17 2026
Mid-level ridging continues to expand westward across the southern plains this afternoon. A subtle mid-level wave and isentropic ascent have generated persistent isolated showers across central kansas, but have seen a decrease in coverage this afternoon and expect that trend to continue. Temperatures warmed up quickly once morning clouds/fog burned off with current observations in the low 80S to mid 90S and heat indices around 100 degrees along and south of interstate 70. Highest chances for precipitation overnight will be north of the forecast area along the nose of the low-level jet and near a shortwave lifting northeast. The pressure gradient tightens as a surface low moves into nebraska, keeping the boundary layer somewhat mixed overnight and limiting the fog potential.
Southwest winds gusting at 20-30 MPH will help create another hot day on friday with highs in the 90S. Dewpoints will mix out to some degree, especially across central kansas. Even so, heat indices will again rise to around 100 degrees during the afternoon. Short-term guidance remains varied in placement of a surface front by friday evening. The majority of guidance keeps the boundary, and associated scattered precipitation, northwest of the forecast area. There are a couple of cams that do push the boundary close enough to produce some showers or a storm across north-central and far northern kansas friday evening and night.
A closed low slowly works its way east from the rockies to the plains saturday through monday, pushing a cold front through the area. Frontal position by saturday afternoon will dictate where storms develop and current indications are that the front will reside somewhere across central kansas by mid-day. With an uncapped and moderately unstable environment ahead of the boundary, lift along the front should be sufficient for convection to develop. SHEAR is progged to be marginal (20-30KTS), but high dcape values support the potential for severe downbursts. Details in timing, location, and convective evolution will become clearer as the system approaches. The threat for heavy rainfall and flooding looks low at this point, but pwats will be seasonably high and could lead to efficient rainfall rates. Chances for showers and storms continue sunday and monday as lingering mid-level energy passes overhead before dry conditions are likely for tuesday. Cooler temperatures build in behind the front, with highs generally in the 70S and lows in the 50S and 60S.
Issued at 548 PM CDT thu sep 17 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with any fog or lower clouds staying well north of the main taf sites. Winds stay light and generally southeasterly overnight before increasing to around 10 KTS from the south during the day tomorrow.