Radar — KOTX
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (North)
Satellite
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- warming trend thursday through saturday pushing temperatures into the upper 80S to mid 90S.
- widespread critical to localized extreme fire weather conditions on saturday.
- elevated fire weather conditions on sunday.
An upper-level ridge nudges back into the inland northwest thursday and friday, boosting highs back into the upper 80S to mid 90S. A robust cold front on saturday will drive strong surface winds and bring low humidity across the region, creating widespread critical to localized extreme fire weather conditions. Temperatures cool by 8- 12 degrees on sunday, though lingering breezy winds will keep fire weather conditions elevated.
...strong winds and dry conditions leading to potential critical fire weather...
Today and friday: a broad ridge is stretching across the pacific northwest with the apex centered over western mt. It will continue to promote the dry, warm pattern that has been in the inland northwest since wednesday. 850mb max temperatures range from 20-21c for thursday and 22-24c on friday. It will keep temperatures in the upper 80 to 90S for most. Lewiston has around a 50% probability of reaching triple digits on friday. Areas being impacted by wildfire smoke could have a few degrees shaved off the forecast high. Heatrisk remains minor to moderate across the region. Afternoon winds will increase with weak afternoon thermal lows will bring brief increases to winds with gusts reaching into the teens. Overnight lows will be in the 50S for thursday and 60S for friday.
Saturday: this continues to be main focus. Ensembles continue to swing a strong +120KT upper level jet across wa as a low swings into the lower bc. Any chance of precip across the region will limited to the cascade crest. The low will push a strong dry cold front through the inland northwest with 850mb-500mb winds ranging from 25-50KTS. The winds will mix down to the surface as the front passes. Westerly winds will begin to increase in the late morning and continue into the evening. Timing for the strongest winds will be in the afternoon to early evening hours. Ensembles have been very consistent with speeds and timing. For speeds, sustained winds will be in the 20 to low 30 MPH range. Weaker winds in the teens will be over the lower idaho panhandle. For gusts, a range of 30 to low 40S for most. The lower idaho panhandle will have gusts into the 20S. Outside of the lower idaho panhandle, probability of wind gusts greater than 35 MPH is at least 60 percent. Southeast washington, lewiston, and western columbia basin including waterville plateau down to wenatchee has 20- 40 percent probability for greater than 50 MPH gusts. It will be something to keep an eye on for the next model runs. Highs for the day will be in the slightly cooler with a range of upper 70S to low 90S. Overnight lows will be in the 40S to 50S.
Sunday: while temperatures will be a lot cooler, winds will continue to be breezy. The region will see winds sustained in the teens with gusts into the 20S continuing to impact ongoing and new fires in the area. Highs will be in the 70S to mid 80S. Overnight lows will be in the 40S to mid 50S.
Monday through wednesday: a flat ridge will fill in behinds the exiting low. Temperatures will rebound back into the 80S to low 90S. Winds will continue the diurnal trend of breezy afternoons and calm overnights. The warm, dry pattern will continue with no chances of beneficial precip for the start of august. Overnight lows will be in the 50S. /jdc
06Z tafs: VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Hrefs has a near 100% probability of VFR conditions. Localized wildfire smoke and haze could bring slight degradation to vis but no MVFR conditions expected. Winds will be declining overnight into light variable terrain driven. Winds will expected to increase 15-20Z thursday with increased mixing near the surface from diurnal heating. Winds will decrease to light and variable around 04Z.
Forecast confidence and/or alternate scenarios: low confidence in impacts to visibilities due to wildfire smoke. /jdc
----------------------- confidence descriptors:
Low - less than a 30 percent chance moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance high - greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS spokane airports,
Please refer to the aviation dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard