Radar — KGYX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Heavy rain and potential flash flooding becoming more localized through the morning hours.
1. Slow moving low pressure will continue to bring rain to the area through this afternoon. Localized heavy rainfall remains possible, though the flash flood threat is diminishing.
2. A quick break in weather is expected to start the weekend, with a return to unsettled weather late sunday into monday.
Key message 1 description...
An unseasonably strong synoptic system continues to work its way thru the northeast today. A deep upper trof and strong surface low for this time of year will spin thru the gulf of maine into the evening before finally drifting east. That means locally we remain under threat of heavy rain and perhaps localized flooding.
The latest cam guidance definitely shows some run to run spatial continuity issues, but the overall temporal evolution is fairly consistent. The various models show convection becoming more robust again in the 2 AM to 8 AM window. Though the max QPF location is shifting around, there is some consensus that 2+ inches is possible in that time period. There is also some indication that the threat may be shifting more towards southwestern maine, but that has yet to make itself apparent on radar trends. For that reason i AM not really inclined to drop the flood watch yet, because that early morning activity could very well end up in nh.
As we move into the afternoon, precip chances will become more focused near the coast. Nwp is looking more convective with this rainfall, and so heavier rainfall amounts will be even more localized than the precip that occurs this morning. Low pressure moving east and the loss of daytime heating will see showers and storms really diminish quickly this evening.
Key message 2 description...
By fri conditions will have improve, but the region will remain beneath lower heights aloft. That will generally mean clearer skies early in the day followed by diurnal increase in cloud cover and the chance for scattered showers and storms. The same will be true of sat, with any shower activity more widely scattered.
By sun the next trof will be approaching. Upper flow will be southwesterly, more or less parallel to the frontal boundary. So i do not expect it to be moving very fast. As such i have no issue with nbm pop being spread out over two days, into mon. It is also possible that this front will be a play in two acts. Act one being convection forming sun and falling apart over western zones, and act two with convection developing again mon slightly east and departing the area by late in the day.
Through tonight: periods of ra, low cigs will lead to IFR to LIFR flight restrictions through morning. Winds will be out of the northeast at 5-10KTS tonight, with some potential for northeasterly wind gusts exceeding 20KTS during the day. Restrictions may start to improve by the end of the day, as low pressure continues to move eastward. However, conditions will be slow to improve and scattered showers remain possible in the evening.
Outlook:
Friday-saturday: largely VFR conditions expected. Local MVFR or lower possible in scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Sunday-monday: increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms may lead to areas of MVFR/IFR developing later in the day sun thru mon.
Fresh east to southeast winds continue thru today, gradually becoming more northerly by the evening. Sca conditions are expected for all waters for much of the day, with winds diminishing more quickly than seas around mid afternoon. There may also be patchy marine fog thru midday.
Winds and seas are generally expected to remain below sca thresholds thru the remainder of the forecast period. However another round of fresh onshore winds are possible sun, and gusts may approach 25 KT outside of the bays.