Radar — KBOX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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No significant changes to the forecast since the last update.
- dry and anomalous warmth continues into mid-week. Daily high in the upper 60S to low 70S, with isolated readings into the mid-70S flirting with daily records.
- pattern becomes more unsettled late-week into the weekend featuring periodic chances for rain.
Key message 1...dry and unseasonably mild into mid-week with highs mainly in the upper 60S to the lower 70S. Some spots may reach into the middle 70S for a day or two and challenge record highs.
Little change in the synoptic pattern as a stout upper ridge remains parked overhead through midweek. With ongoing antecedent dry conditions, leaned on the warmer envelope of guidance instead of the mos/nbm output which continues to run a bit too cool for afternoon highs. Highs will generally peak in the upper 60S to low 70S (cooler along the immediate south coast, CAPE, and islands). With 925mb temps warming to +11c to +15c, peak heating towards mid-week likely push locations in interior sne to the mid 70S, likely putting several daily high records in jeopardy. Only real fly in the ointment will be scattered high clouds periodically filtering the full sun through mid-week. High confidence persists in an unseasonably mild, dry regime through wednesday.
Key message 2...pattern becomes more unsettled late-week into the weekend featuring periodic chances for rain.
Ensemble guidance shows a consensus in a shift of the pattern late thursday into friday as a mid-level trough arrives from the west. This will advect in a plume of rich moisture 2-3 standard deviations above normal. This will be accompanied by a frontal system that pushes across the ohio river valley and into the mid-atlantic and northeast. This will likely bring US our next best shot at precipitation. Details such as timing, rain amounts/rates are still lower confidence due to uncertainty in the tracking of the surface features/best forcing. If the frontal features track closer, this could put southern new england in better forced environment and potentially with marginal instability present. This could favor a few rumbles of thunders or heavier downpours. Timing of this is low confidence due to the track uncertainties, but the general timeframe is late thu through sat. Lighter/spotty showers may linger at late as sunday. However, it likely won't be rain for the entire timeframe.
Ensemble guidance highlights probabilities of 30-60% for rain totals of 0.50" or more and low probabilities (10-30%) for 1.0" or greater. Deterministic solutions have leaned toward the upper percentile solutions of their ensemble suite showing potential for amounts 1.0 to upward of 2.0" inches. Once guidance comes into better agreement, confidence will increase in the exact timing of rainfall and totals.
Above normal temperatures are likely thursday with the mid-level thermal ridge shifting over southern new england with 925mb temperatures +13-15c. This will support high temperatures in the upper 60S to low/mid 70S! Temperatures likely lean seasonably warm for friday as well. Depending on how the system tracks, we may get one more day of milder temperatures saturday with more seasonable temperatures arriving by sunday.
Forecaster confidence levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z taf update...high confidence.
Forecast remains largely on track from the last update. VFR conditions will continue through the middle of the week with some mid-high level cloudiness at times. Winds will generally average from the SW at 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon/S.
Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf. Some gusts near 20 KTS are possible this afternoon.
Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.
Outlook /wednesday night through friday/...
Tuesday night through wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance ra.
Thursday night through friday: mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Ra likely.
Forecaster confidence levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through wednesday...high confidence.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds through the middle of the week. Nonetheless...we may have some SW wind gusts of 20+ knots at times particularly nearshore during the afternoons. This may result in some choppy seas at times...but thinking we should remain below the need for headlines. Greatest chance of 20+ knot winds develops this afternoon across the SE waters.
Outlook /wednesday night through friday/...
Tuesday night through thursday: winds less than 25 KT.
Thursday night: winds less than 25 KT. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: winds less than 25 KT. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.