Radar — KBOX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (North)
Satellite
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No significant changes to the forecast.
- increased humidity and warmer temperatures continue tomorrow.
- scattered showers possible thursday evening into friday morning.
- rain chances return for the second half of the weekend. There remains uncertainty in the details such as coverage, timing, amounts.
Key message 1...increased humidity and warmer temperatures continue tomorrow.
Warmer temperatures with increased humidity continue into tomorrow as an anomalous moisture plume and higher 925 mb temperatures advect into southern new england via SW flow. Looking ahead into tonight, the increased moisture and winds dropping off in the interior may favor the development of some patchy fog, especially in the ct valley. With 925 mb temperatures reaching around 16-19c in the afternoon thursday, high temperatures in the low 80S are a possibility, especially in the river valleys. These higher low level temperatures remain over the region overnight as well with high pressure affixed just to our south continuing SW flow; lows tonight will likely only drop into 60S as opposed to the areas of 50S and 40S we've seen the past few nights. Pwats up to 2.0" and dewpoints in the upper 60S will make it feel more humid, too. Despite the increased humidity, the region should remain dry for much of the day tomorrow.
Key message 2...scattered showers possible thursday evening into friday morning. Dry during the day friday.
A weak shortwave trough progresses eastward behind the plume of moisture, which will aid in the development of scattered showers across southern new england. As previously mentioned, latest guidance has shown pwats reaching ans even exceeding 2.0" thursday afternoon/evening. However, we are not anticipating widespread downpours as guidance continues to track the stronger forcing across northern parts of new england. Global models and a number of the cams (with the exception of the NAM) are in agreement that higher rainfall totals should generally remain to our north, and ensemble probabilities also favor this outcome. Totals across southern new england should primarily range between 0.1" to 0.3" based on the more northern track of the wave. The latest cams have still shown some elevated instability thursday night, so a low chance of some isolated downpours cannot be completely ruled out. Totals could also increase slightly if the wave were to end up tracking a little further south, but the general consensus is that the greatest forcing will remain to our north and we could generally expect a few tenths of an inch.
Following this system, drier air pushes back in with NW flow, which will aid in clearing skies through the day and bringing temperatures back to a more seasonable range.
Key message 3... Rain chances return some time late saturday night into monday morning. There remains uncertainty in the details such as coverage, timing, amounts.
A high pressure should move across northern new england saturday, then over the north atlantic sunday. This should clear the path for a low pressure to move from the lower great lakes south of new england late some time late saturday night into monday. This will likely be our next period of rainfall. However, the timing is not yet finalized, especially with a high pressure over the ocean. Would not be surprised if a slower timing develops.
There is also a question about how much rainfall we can expect across our region. High pressure over eastern canada may nudge far enough south to pus the ultimate storm track far enough south where we could wind up dry tuesday into wednesday. Assuming this occurs, total rainfall amounts could be limited to a general 1-2 inches by monday afternoon. Otherwise, with a nearly stationary front close to the south coast of new england could trigger some showers right into mid week.
Forecaster confidence levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z taf update...
Through tonight...high confidence.
VFR outside of areas of patchy fog, where MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible. SW winds near 8-12 KTS, with the higher end of the range towards the CAPE and islands. Winds become lighter to even calm for some areas in the interior tonight. Patchy fog in the valleys and other terminals that often see fog (orh, bed mainly) may develop in the early morning hours between 08Z and 12Z, burning off quickly after sunrise. Mid- level cloud deck begins to move in overnight into early thursday morning.
Thursday...moderate confidence.
VFR with areas of MVFR developing in the early afternoon/late morning hours. Winds at 5-10 KT, shifting more S to SE across the region towards 17Z for most. Some could see winds more SSW, particularly for CAPE and island terminals. Showers may start to move into the region in the afternoon hours from W to E, with chances continuing to increase through the evening.
Thursday night...moderate confidence.
MVFR with areas of IFR. Showers push across the region, clearing towards friday morning, though MVFR conditions could linger a bit over the CAPE and islands. Winds generally at 5-10 KT from the SW, shifting NW towards friday morning.
Kbos terminal...high confidence in taf.
Kbdl terminal...high confidence in taf.
Outlook /friday through monday/...
Friday: VFR.
Friday night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night: VFR. Chance shra.
Sunday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Shra likely.
Sunday night through monday: VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.
Forecaster confidence levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through thursday night...high confidence.
High pressure continues along with SW winds at 10-15 KT into tomorrow. Gusts just under 20 KT are possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Chances for showers over the waters increase thursday night, especially for northern parts of the eastern waters. Seas remain at 2-3 ft, though areas of the southern waters may approach 4 ft heading into friday morning.
Outlook /friday through monday/...
Friday: winds less than 25 KT. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up to 25 KT. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: winds less than 25 KT. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday night: winds less than 25 KT. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: winds less than 25 KT. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday night: winds less than 25 KT. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up to 25 KT. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.