Radar — KMPX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
- heat continues into midweek with continues highs in the 90S.
- heavy rain looking increasingly likely thursday into friday. Low confidence on where the heaviest rain may fall.
- smoky skies continue through the week but the chance for surface smoke impacts appears low.
Issued at 1121 AM CDT tue jul 28 2026
The region remains on the northeastern edge of a strong upper- level ridge through wednesday. This will support highs in the lower 90S across much of the area, with middle or upper 90S possible in portions of western minnesota wednesday. Lower dew points should keep conditions less oppressive than earlier this week. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near a weak boundary across southwest minnesota tuesday, shifting toward east-central minnesota and northwest wisconsin wednesday. Coverage should be limited, and widespread severe weather is not expected. Wildfire smoke from the pacific northwest will periodically produce hazy or filtered sunshine. Most of this smoke is expected to remain above the surface, limiting air-quality impacts.
Thursday through friday night a stronger disturbance and associated surface low will move into the upper midwest thursday and friday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this system will return deeper moisture to minnesota and wisconsin, with thunderstorms becoming more numerous from west to east. Scattered storms may develop across western minnesota thursday afternoon before expanding eastward thursday night. The storm prediction center currently has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of the upper mississippi valley. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe- weather hazard, especially if storms organize into one or more clusters. Large hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms, but limited wind SHEAR may keep the overall severe threat from becoming widespread. Heavy rainfall may become the more widespread concern thursday night into friday. Precipitable water values will be anomalously high, and slow-moving training storms may repeatedly impact the same locations. A good deal of uncertainty still exists with the favored placement of the frontal boundary & corridor of heaviest rain, although current guidance places the strongest signal from iowa into southeast minnesota and southwest wisconsin. High-resolution model guidance highlights the potential for rainfall amounts of 3-4" wherever the main swath of thunderstorms occurs, & localized amounts near 6" appear possible as well. Our dry conditions over the last two weeks should mitigate the flash flood threat somewhat, but urban flooding is a risk as well as small stream/creek flooding rural areas.
The late- week system should gradually move east and south saturday. Showers may linger into saturday morning, particularly across wisconsin, before drier air becomes more established. Less- organized waves of showers and storms may continue across northern minnesota and northern wisconsin, but southern portions of both states have a better chance of remaining dry sunday. Temperatures should settle closer to late- july normals behind the system, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80S. Warmer conditions may return early next week as the ridge begins expanding eastward again.
Issued at 1227 AM CDT wed jul 29 2026
A few patches of mid level clouds are scattered across the region, but all taf sites are clear. Diurnal cu expected to develop late morning. Light winds through the period.
Kmsp...no additional concerns.
/outlook for kmsp/ thu...VFR. MVFR/shra/chc ts evening/overnight. Wind SW 10 KTS. Fri...MVFR/shra/chc ts. Wind E shifting N 10KTS. Sat...VFR. Wind N 5-10KTS.