Radar — KMAX
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (North)
Satellite
29/06Z tafs...VFR conditions currently prevail and will do so through the taf period for most locations. A marine push tonight will bring areas of LIFR/IFR ceilings to the coast and MVFR ceilings inland into the umpqua basin. The marine layer doesn't quite look deep enough to spill over the rogue-umqpua divide, but there could be some scattered clouds in the northern portions of jackson/josephine counties early wednesday morning. The lower conditions will improve to VFR by late wednesday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. /br-y
Updated 800 PM PDT tuesday, july 28, 2026...north winds will gradually increase tonight into wednesday, reaching advisory criteria south of port orford and beyond 10 nm from shore. This will bring borderline steep seas wednesday, primarily from gold beach southward. Winds ease again on thursday with improved conditions expected through early saturday.
On saturday, a low pressure system passing to the north may bring very strong northerly winds over area waters as it tightens the gradient and enhances the thermal trough. Although the timing and strength of these winds are uncertain, the latest models are showing a high likelihood of gales and very steep seas, and nearly a 30 percent chance of storm force gusts by early next week.
/issued 222 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026/
Key messages...
* smoke from the castle fire and multiple complexes in central oregon will continue to impact lake and klamath counties.
* very low chance of thunderstorms in northern lake and klamath counties wednesday and thursday.
* temperatures begin to trend warmer by friday.
* a dry cold front will move through saturday as temperatures lower into the weekend.
Discussion...
Quiet weather continues today with near normal temperatures under broad west to northwest flow over the pacific northwest. Smoke and lower air quality will be the main weather feature over the next few days. Broader west to northwest flow will keep pushing smoke from the castle fire into lake and klamath counties. Also, the smoke from the complexes in central oregon will continue to settle east of the cascades overnight and the next few nights.
A short wave embedded in the upper level flow will swing through southern oregon on wednesday. Deterministic models are not showing any convection, although the nbm 12 hour thunderstorm probability has hints of thunderstorm activity in northern lake and klamath counties. A few ensemble members are also showing light precipitation in central oregon wednesday afternoon. In any case, the probabilities for thunderstorms are quite low and around 5-10%. Some may in fact form outside of our forecast area as well.
That same story continues on thursday with a stronger short wave pushing through southern oregon. The 12Z GFS and small number of ensembles are initiating convection east of the cascades and around our border in central oregon. The wave on thursday looks a bit stronger as well. If storms do form, they will lean drier given the large inverted v in the forecast soundings up to 550 and 600 mb. Again, the probability of this occuring is about 5-10%
Friday looks like a rather quiet day as temperatures trend about 5 degrees warmer and hit the upper 90's here in medford. Heat risk is still low to moderate likely on friday. This is likely because it's the hottest time of year and the brief nature of the heat.
Saturday will be a bigger change for our area as the upper wave in the pacific finally shoots east and cold front follows in the lows' wake. The cold front will be dry and likely move through mid day saturday. High temperatures will take a notable dip into the 80's in our valleys west of the cascades. Usually these cold fronts bring some breezy winds as they pass through. Wind gusts will trend higher and hit 30 MPH over larger areas east of the cascades on saturday afternoon.
We'll see these cooler temperatures stay around by sunday before a thermal trough and some easterly breezes set up across the forecast area on monday. High temperatures will shoot up again into the upper 90's for locations west of the cascades. A strong ridge will likely build over california the start of next week. Highs should stay in the upper 90's or perhaps 100. If the ridge ends up farther north, which is a realistic solution, then we'll be well into the mid 100's here in medford.
-smith
Fire weather...updated 230 PM PDT tuesday, july 28, 2026...
Overall, the rest of the week will see generally normal summer weather but with some conditions worth addressing. Very slight chances (about 5%) remain for afternoon/evening dry thunderstorms on wednesday and thursday. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal before cooling over the weekend.
A dry cold front is bringing elevated fire weather concerns for saturday, as this front looks to bring elevated northerly winds across the area. The highest winds will likely be along coastal headlands, but the shasta and eastern rogue (from shady cove to gold hill to ashland) may see gusty winds funnel through. Additionally, gusty westerly winds are possible across east side areas. Details are coarse at this point, but currently winds stay short of critical speeds and rhs see a slight increase. This period will be watched closely as the details resolve. -tad