Weather Lookup

Key Messages

Updated at 219 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

- a high risk of rip currents continues today into thursday. Elevated surf heights to around 4 feet are expected through thursday.

- moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open gulf through thursday.

Discussion

Issued at 219 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

Through saturday...an upper high centered over eastern tennessee this morning gets a westward push as an upper low organizing off the east coast pushes west over the southeast. A drier airmass has begun moving over the eastern edge of the forecast area, driven by northeasterly flow above the surface between the upper high and low, and a surface ridge along the eastern edge of the appalachians. Precipitable h20 values around 1.5" on the eastern edge of the forecast area this morning, with the airmass dipping even lower, to around 1" over the east coast. This dry air pushes west over the southeast, with a dry forecast into friday. As the upper low moves near the florida atlantic coast, atlantic moisture begins to move over the southeast around the upper low, bringing a tongue of increased moisture back over the forecast area saturday into saturday night, with guidance varying in the timing and magnitude. The latest run of the nbm is advertising a slight chance of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms along and southeast of i-65 saturday afternoon. Have little confidence to change this, so AM letting this ride.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms into the weekend, with high temperatures seeing an upward trend with the decrease in moisture levels. High temperatures in the around 90 to low 90S thursday rise into the mid to upper 90S for saturday, low 90S along the coast. Heat indices remain below 100 thursday and friday, though an uptick in boundary layer moisture later saturday brings heat indices in the 100 to 106 degree range saturday. Low temperatures drop into the 60S through the friday night.

Saturday night on, the upper low opens into an upper trough and shifts east as the weakening upper ridge builds back east over the southeast. Some atlantic moisture moves inland over the southeast before the appalachian ridge weakens. Isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected, with temperatures easing closer to, but remaining above seasonal norms. Heat indices remain in the 100-105 degree range over most of the forecast area through the extended.

Taking a look at the rip current risk on area beaches, the moderate to strong easterly flow over the northern gulf weakens through the end of the week, dropping the rip risk to a moderate by friday and weak through the weekend. /16

Aviation

(18Z tafs) issued at 122 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

Marine

Issued at 219 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026

Moderate to strong easterly flow eases into friday. Winds become a more diurnally afternoon onshore, night time offshore this weekend. Seas increase to 3 to 6 feet today, gradually diminishing through late week. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the marine waters through thursday afternoon. /16

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops

Mobile 71 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 pensacola 75 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 destin 74 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 evergreen 68 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 waynesboro 69 93 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 camden 69 91 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 crestview 69 90 68 93 / 0 0 0 0