Radar — KMOB
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Updated at 1235 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026 - hot conditions continue today with heat index values of 108-112 degrees possible.
- thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon through the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
- a high risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend for all area beaches.
Issued at 1235 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
Upper-level troughing deepening across the eastern and northern conus will begin to break down the upper ridge over the southern conus today into friday. This means today will likely be the last day of hot temperatures pushing heat index values past advisory criteria, with peak values around 108-112 expected across most of the area. A plume of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 2.1-2.2 inches will be oriented NW-SE across the area today with a weak northwest flow aloft associated with troughing to the east. Afternoon heating and subtle shortwaves in the flow should promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon. Highest coverage is expected generally along and north of the i-10 corridor, where pops range from 60-80%. A few storms may become strong to severe with the potential for locally damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
Attention the turns to a positively tilted upper trough digging southeast from the great lakes through the weekend, sending a cold front toward the central gulf coast by late weekend. Ahead of this system, deep tropical moisture will continue to increase, with refs guidance depicting pwats exceeding 2.4 inches by friday afternoon, hovering near the 99th percentile for late july climatology. This moisture-rich environment should support rounds of numerous to widespread showers and storms friday and saturday for much of the area. Slow moving, training, or backbuilding cells in this environment may lead to a localized flash flood threat. Rain chances are a bit more uncertain for sunday, hinging on the eventual position of the approaching cool front. Current guidance suggests the boundary may slow or stall over the forecast area, keeping the highest rain chances confined to the southeastern half of the cwa with drier air filtering in from the northwest. Increasingly widespread cloud cover and rainfall each day should keep daytime temperatures near or even below normal, with highs in the low 90S friday, decreasing to upper 80S for most spots by sunday.
By early next week, the front is projected to wash out as the remnant upper trough or cutoff low gradually diminishes. This should transition the region back to a more typical summertime regime, with scattered showers and storms each afternoon and temperatures rebounding to near seasonal values, generally in the low to mid 90S.
A moderate risk of rip currents continues today along northwest florida beaches with a low risk along the alabama beaches, becoming a moderate risk for all area beaches on friday. A high risk of rip currents is expected to develop saturday for the florida beaches and expand to all area beaches by sunday. Jgc/98
(06Z tafs) issued at 1235 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
VFR conditions prevail through this morning before scattered showers and storms redevelop with brief periods of reduced ceilings and visbys. /13
Issued at 1235 PM CDT wed jul 29 2026
Light to moderate westerly flow prevails across the marine area through the upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. Locally higher winds and waves can be expected in or near any thunderstorms. Mm/25
Mobile 94 75 91 75 / 60 50 80 30 pensacola 93 78 91 77 / 60 40 70 60 destin 91 79 90 79 / 60 50 60 60 evergreen 93 73 91 75 / 60 40 60 30 waynesboro 95 74 93 75 / 60 30 60 20 camden 93 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 30 crestview 94 74 93 74 / 70 40 70 30