Radar — KMXX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Issued at 1255 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
- heat: moderate heat risk is present for the southwestern areas today, as afternoon heat indices will near 105 degrees.
- heavy rain: confidence is increasing in elevated rain chances and the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend as moisture pools ahead of an incoming boundary.
(thursday through next wednesday) issued at 1039 PM CDT wed jul 29 2026
Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a deep trough taking hold across the eastern US while ridging continues to dominate out west. A series of shortwaves will continue to rotate along the periphery of the ridge, leading to low to moderate chances for showers and storms thursday and friday. The greatest chances daily will be to the south and west of a boundary lingering across the state. Drier air moving into the region behind this boundary will keep the northern half of the area dry as we wrap up the work week. As we head into the weekend, an upper level shortwave will drop into the tennessee valley while pushing another boundary our way. This would warrant medium to high chances for showers and storms through the weekend. Moisture looks to pool ahead of this system with several members of the lref suggesting pwats well over 2". Forecast soundings hint at a fully saturated profile with a warm cloud up to 15-16kft. This would suggest periods of heavy rainfall are likely. There are signs of this shortwave being cut off across the southeast and meandering through early next week. This would keep elevated rain chances in our forecast. Details on rainfall amounts and durations will be worked out in the coming days.
Thursday looks to be another fairly uncomfortable day with highs in the low to mid 90S. Continued muggy conditions will warrant a moderate to major heat risk across our southwestern areas with heat indices around 105. Confidence is not quite as high in how long we will see heat advisory criteria for as drier air continues to work in. Therefore, we will hold off on a heat advisory for our southwestern areas for now. We will knock off a couple of degrees daily as we head into the weekend as the ridge retreats back west. High temps look to settle into the 80S by saturday.
95/castillo
(06Z tafs) issued at 1255 AM CDT thu jul 30 2026
Only isolated convection is expected across the far southern counties of c al for the remainder of tonight, so i will be leaving out of the terminals for now. With clear skies for most, there is a low to medium potential for patchy MVFR fog through 14Z. Afternoon convection is expected across the srn counties on thu with a stall surface boundary stretched across the mid-section of al. I have a prob30 for 21-02Z to account for this. Chances are too low elsewhere to mention. Otherwise, WNW-NNW winds 5-10KTS are expected during the day with mixing.
Note: amd not sked for kauo due to a weather observation outage.
08
A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in check for the week. Minrh values are expected to remain above 50 percent through wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in from the east on thursday and friday with rhs dropping to around 40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire weather concerns.
Gadsden 92 67 93 72 / 0 0 0 30 anniston 91 67 91 72 / 0 0 0 20 birmingham 93 71 93 74 / 0 0 20 40 tuscaloosa 95 74 94 75 / 10 10 40 50 calera 95 71 95 73 / 10 10 30 40 auburn 91 72 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 montgomery 94 73 94 74 / 30 20 40 40 troy 94 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 40