Radar — KMVX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (North)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: US-10 (Primary)
- dense fog is forecasted tonight across much of eastern north dakota and portions of northwestern minnesota.
- widespread rain is expected across the region monday into tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across southeast north dakota into west central minnesota.
- warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly sunday and monday.
Issued at 1019 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
The main forecast change is the issuance of a dense fog advisory over much of eastern nd and the northern red river valley. Fog started forming this afternoon in barnes and griggs counties. Around sunset, fog began expanding. As low level moisture continues to advect northward overnight, dense fog will develop along and north of highway 2. Recent observations in this area are indicating dropping visibilities, and webcams confirm fog is becoming more prevalent. Advisories are in effect until 6 AM sunday in the south, 9 AM in the north. However there is uncertainty in when exactly fog will clear. This is especially true near the canadian border where fog will likely hang on longest and may persist beyond the advisories current expiration time.
Issued at 355 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
...synopsis...
Ridging continues to move eastward with southwest flow filling in from the west. Warm air and moisture is advecting into the 925mb to 700mb layer, thus sustaining a low cloud deck and occasional mist and light rain. Visibility could be impacted this evening and overnight, with a chance for 1 to 3 mile visibility during peak trick or treat hours due to mist and/or patchy fog. Warm temperatures are expected sunday into monday, with afternoon highs possibly approaching the 60S. This will be dependent on cloud cover, which could be very slow to clear sunday morning.
...rain event monday/tuesday...
A slow moving h5 trough is expected to deepen as we head into sunday and monday. This will bring widespread rain chances into the area through tuesday, with around an 80 percent chance of at least a half inch of rain across southeast north dakota and west central minnesota. Chances decrease further north and west. The heaviest rain will occur in response to a deformation zone that forms as the upper low moves off to the northeast. As such, the track of the low will ultimately determine where the heaviest amounts fall, which could be upwards of 2 inches to 3 inches inside the deformation band. Outside this band, the range will be lower, likely in the 0.5 inch to 1 inch range.
Issued at 640 PM CDT sat oct 31 2026
Conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight, with current IFR and MVFR turning into LIFR and IFR in the next few hours. Fog and drizzle will be hazards at kdvl, kgfk and kfar, with drizzle at kbji and ktvf. Ceilings will improve mid to late sunday morning back into MVFR at most terminals. There is some uncertainty in when this improvement will occur, and therefore IFR may linger a bit longer then the current set of tafs shows.