Weather Lookup

What Has Changed

Arrival of rain has slowed for mid week. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the latest forecast.

Key Messages

1) mainly dry weather and above average temperatures before rain chances return by mid to late week

Discussion

Key message 1... Surface high pressure centered eastern ny/eastern pa will continue to maintain dry weather across the region today and tonight. Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the area in warm and moist advection aloft ahead of a shortwave across the midwest. This shortwave trough is expected to weaken as it moves east, and crosses the upper ohio valley region on monday. At the surface, a weak warm front is also progged to lift NE on monday. Moisture is expected to be limited with this system, though a few sprinkles or brief light rain is possible, mainly across oh, as the wave and surface front cross. Only a brief mention of slight chance pops were included mainly west of i-77 on monday.

A ridge is then expected to build across the eastern conus tuesday into wednesday, ahead of a deepening central conus trough. This ridge should result in dry weather and the warmest temperatures of the week, with rising 500 mb heights. While it is not likely to set any record highs, temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above average.

The central conus trough, and associated surface front, are expected to track eastward and approach the upper ohio valley region late wednesday. Rain chances gradually increase late in the day, peaking wednesday night into thursday as the trough and surface front cross the region. Model ensembles then indicate broad upper troughing will persist across the NE conus into saturday, with periodic rain chances continuing as individual shortwaves rotate through the main trough.

Aviation — 06Z Sunday Through Thursday

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the taf period. Light wind will continue, but veer to the SE as the center of the high shifts east of the area. Mid and high level cloud will continue to stream across the area in warm advection ahead of a shortwave trough across the midwest.

Outlook... VFR is expected until rain and restriction chances increase late wednesday and thursday with approaching low pressure.