Radar — KHDC
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: Elk Place (Secondary)
Updated at 131 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
- drier air from a back door front brings breezy conditions along coastal areas, unsettled marine waters, and a few scattered showers/storms today.
- more comfortable humidity and dry conditions will follow on thursday and friday, but moisture and rain chances will begin to return by early next week.
(now through saturday night) issued at 131 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Abysmal lift associated with the decaying back door front has yielded only isolated showers, with only a few smaller storms across the coastal areas today. Deep moisture remains high over the area with dew points still sitting the mid to upper 70S which has yielded yet another miserably hot and muggy day with heat indices in the 100S in most places. Despite the high moisture and instability, any thunderstorm activity that develops will be focused on areas of confluence associated with lake/seabreezes along the northshore/ms coast and southshore with the lake shadow from pontchartrain creating a gap between these two corridors in the river parishes.
As the deep layer dry air from the southern appalachians moves into the area tonight and into thursday, dew point temperatures will decrease into the 60S providing a more tolerable, warm and sunny day. Conditions will remain breezy with gusts out of the east upwards of 15 to 20 MPH, but should gradually calm down into the evening hours. Friday will carry a similar look and feel.
(sunday through tuesday night) issued at 131 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
The near-600 dam high centered over the southeast conus today will continue to cook the region through saturday which will keep temperatures above normal for this time of year despite the reprieve from higher humidity. Heat indices will return to the 100S over the weekend and latest model guidance continues to trend toward the warmer/drier solutions as the ridge wins against the upper trough attempting to retrograde underneath it toward the gulf. As a result, pops have trended lower within the nbm guidance suite. Exact timing of the breakdown of the ridge and arrival of the upper trough into the northern gulf coast will hinge on how much the ridge erodes or if the ridge blocks the trough from retrogrades farther west towards our area into early next week. If we remain on the western flank of the upper trough we may continue to see pops trend lower than currently advertised for early next week.
(18Z tafs) issued at 131 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals with mainly sct cu and high-level convective blowoff noted on visible satellite imagery. Sh/ts have remained along the immediate coastal areas and have had minimal impacts thus far though prob30S remain for potential -tsra impacts this afternoon. Easterly winds will remain breezy at 10 to 20 knots gusting to 25 knots at coastal terminals. VFR conditions will prevail tonight and into thursday with no sh/ts expected across the area. East winds will be breezy during the daytime, but gradually abate later in the day.
Issued at 131 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Surface high pressure will wedge down the southern appalachians through mid to late week. This feature will increase low level pressure gradient and allow easterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots across much of the coastal waters through thursday. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 6 to 9 feet in the open gulf waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate on friday and into saturday.