Radar — KMUX
Surface Analysis — Western U.S. (South)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: Broadway (Primary)
Updated at 1129 PM PDT mon jul 27 2026
- breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early midweek
- gradual warming starting midweek, with moderate heatrisk for interior locations through the weekend
- elevated fire weather threat across the interior north and east bay, diablo and santa lucia ranges this week
- hazardous beach conditions at the pacific coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents through the end of the week
Issued at 851 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026
Quick recap for tuesday, overall sensible weather was pretty similar to monday with a large temp gradient from the coast to the interior. Highs topped out in the upper 50S to mid 70S for the coast and bays. With the help of northerly/downslope a few coastal spots reach into the 80S, like santa cruz. Farther inland highs topped out in the upper 70S to near 100 degrees. Pretty common scenario for this time of year. Given the temp difference onshore flow was pretty solid too leading to some gusty winds. Gust of 30-40 MPH were observed along the coast, inland valleys,gaps, and passes.
For tonight, satellite fog product already shows more stratus coverage than 24 hours ago. The re-established marine layer will continue to fill in overnight with more inland coverage by wednesday morning.
No update needed this evening. The biggest weather impacts over the next 7 days will be lingering fire weather, hazardous beaches due to dangerous surf conditions, and building heat the rest of the week.
Mm
Issued at 155 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026 (this evening through wednesday night)
Water vapor imagery continues to show a relatively deep trough of low pressure situated along the west coast, with an embedded shortwave moving into the pacific northwest at this afternoon. Meanwhile, the dry slot remains situated over the central california, with sunny skies prevailing this afternoon except along portions of the immediate coast, where the marine layer remains. As a result, most locations are running similar to or slightly warmer than this time yesterday. Temperatures today will depend on location, but expect seasonally warm conditions inland, and a litter cooler than seasonal along the coast. Onshore winds are also starting to increase this afternoon, with breezy conditions continuing through the evening hours, which should help moderate temperatures a bit as well. Expect another pleasant evening and cool overnight conditions prevailing. Between the predominately clear skies, decreasing winds, and dry air in place, we should see another night of good radiational cooling. Most locations will be in the 50S to lower 60S, with the coldest spots dipping into the upper 40S despite the time of year. Conversely, the thermal belted regions will struggle to cool once again, with temperatures remaining in the mid 60S to around 70.
Expect the marine layer to make a pretty widespread return tonight to the inland valleys, another that next disturbance pushes inland across the west coast later tonight and during the day on wednesday. Therefore, expect another very pleasant day across the region on wednesday, with temperatures similar to if not slightly warmer than today, especially across the inland areas. Palmer
Issued at 155 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026 (thursday through next monday)
High pressure will then start to expand from the desert southwest into the region on thursday, and continue to build for friday and into the weekend. As a result, even drier and warmer conditions will prevail, especially across on inland areas. In fact, confidence is high that the inland areas will be down right hot, with the hottest locations potentially ranging between 100 and 110. 850 mb temperatures support this, as they appear to warm into the mid to upper 20 deg c range, peaking on saturday. The confidence for the coastal areas though are moderate at best and less clearly defined. Temperatures along the coast will still largely be dependent on the marine layer, which should be considerably squashed, and the wind regime. While winds over all appear to remain relatively light through the period, some weak onshore flow looks like it will continue to persist along the coast, giving coastals areas some reprieve from the hottest temperatures.
The ensembles remain divergent for sunday through early next week, as to whether the heat will linger longer or finally start to retreat. At this point in time, like the idea of the nbm, which kind of splits the difference, with inland areas remaining quite warm, just not as hot as the weekend, while coastal areas are more seasonal. Palmer
(06Z tafs) issued at 950 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026
No major changes as mainly VFR conditions prevail across the region, the exception being along the immediate coast where stratus slowly blossoms. Look for clear skies for interior terminals, and MVFR to IFR conditions for coastal terminals impacted by the stratus. Skies should begin to clear mid morning for most sites, with another afternoon of clear skies and breezy onshore winds.
Vicinity of sfo...clear skies for now, though stratus is slowly meandering toward sfo and is visible on various webcams in the area. A medium confidence level remains on the arrival of the stratus, as most guidance has clouds coming into the site between 8-10Z. Satellite has it flirting just west of the airport, so the earlier timing, which was 5-7Z, remains possible. Opted to hold the later time, though this may need to be adjusted with in the next couple of hours if it actually makes it onsite. Skies will clear by mid to late morning.
In terms of the wind, breezy onshore winds will continue to gradually decrease tonight. However, they will return again wednesday afternoon, but may not have as early of a start. Guidance shows winds picking up between 20-00Z, rather than 18Z. Moderate to high confidence in the wind timing portion of o the forecast.
Wednesday night into thursday morning, the signal for stratus is not as strong. Opted to hint at the possibility of it returning, though confidence is low.
Sfo bridge approach...similar to sfo.
Monterey bay terminals...stratus quickly filled in around the southern half of the bay this evening; however, it has eroded some around the ksns. Stratus for kmry should hold through overnight hours, with ksns likely returning to MVFR and IFR cigs later tonight. Skies should clear by mid morning for ksns and kmry should follow with clearing occuring during the late morning or the early afternoon. Breezy onshore winds return tomorrow afternoon, with 15- 20KT gusts lingering through the early evening. Models try to hint at stratus returning during the evening hours, opted to bring it back for kmry but hold of any re-introduction to ksns for the time being. Medium to high confidence in the forecast.
(tonight through next monday) issued at 950 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026
Fresh to strong northwest breezes with near gale force gusts will continue through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Gale force gusts with moderate seas are expected along coastal jet regions along big sur and point reyes. Additionally, gale force winds are possible for the northern outer waters by the end of the weekend. Tropical activity will also continue to produce long period swell along our coastal waters into the weekend.
Issued at 155 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026
The elevated fire weather threat will continue across portions of the area through at least this weekend. Overnight rh recovery will remain moderate to poor at locations at or above 2,000 feet with values between 35 to 50 percent, with some favored locations struggling to even reach 30 percent. This will be particularly true across the mayacamas, highest peaks of the east bay hills, the diablo range, santa cruz mountains, santa lucia and gabilan ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in rh through the pre- dawn hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may remain active. Afternoon rh will remain critically dry with values between 20 and 40 percent, with far southern portions of the interior central coast potentially seeing min rh near 10 percent. Energy release components (erc) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile across the interior central coast. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.
Issued at 155 PM PDT tue jul 28 2026
Long period southerly to southwesterly swell of 16-18 seconds will continue to impact our coastline over the next several days, bringing hazardous beach conditions to the central coast and the san francisco bay area. Sneaker waves and strong rips currents will be the primary conditions, with breaking waves up to 12 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points, such as santa cruz, pacifica, and parts of stinson or ocean beach. This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise, resulting in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull even the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check marine conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard, if possible. Maintain a safe distance from the water, and stay away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through saturday afternoon.