Radar — KDOX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (Central)
Satellite
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Nearest monitored road: Philadelphia Avenue (Primary)
Updated discussion.
No significant changes.
1) dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a gradual warming trend.
2) a chance for showers returns thursday and friday, but confidence in widespread beneficial rainfall remains low, though most areas likely see at least 0.10" of rain. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the end of the week.
As of 225 AM EST monday...
Key message 1...dry weather continues into the middle of this week with a gradual warming trend.
A well-defined area of high pressure is still just off the nj coast early this morning, with sfc ridging extending SSW into the local area. As a result, there is a very weak pressure gradient and light/calm winds at this hour. A weak shortwave aloft over the central appalachians continues to slowly move toward the local area. High clouds have overspread much of va/nc in advance of this feature. Temperatures are in the upper 30S-40S and will not fall much more overnight due to the cloud cover. Radar mosaic shows some light echoes over SE wv and SW va, with some sites in SW va reporting light rain at this hour. Clouds increase today as that shortwave weakens as it approaches and crosses the area. Highs will be only in the mid to upper 60S due to the clouds. There is a very low but nonzero chance of light rain in the piedmont later this morning- midday but rain amounts would only be a few hundredths of an inch at best. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60S across western portions of the fa if we manage to see some very light rain.
A pronounced warming trend takes place on tuesday/wednesday as a building ridge aloft moves over the area while the surface high moves farther offshore. With the low-level flow becoming SE, lower to mid 70S are expected on tuesday with mid to upper 70S on wednesday. Depending on cloud cover, 80f readings are across portions of interior srn va and NE nc wednesday. Overnight lows also gradually moderate from the 40S tonight to around 60f wednesday night.
Key message 2...a chance for showers returns thursday and friday, but confidence in widespread beneficial rainfall remains low, though most areas likely see at least 0.10" of rain. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the end of the week.
A strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft will initially move from the rockies into the northern plains and midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the thursday-friday timeframe. Shower chances return on thursday as the trailing cold front gets close to the area. Showers could begin by late morning west of i-95, with precipitation chances expanding to cover the entire area by the end of the day. However, most of the models show a weakening trend in the showers as they approach the area as the best upper forcing misses US to the north. Despite this, most areas will likely see at least 0.10" of rain from thursday-thursday night. Shower chances likely end across the piedmont by friday morning following the fropa but continue during the day/evening on friday across the eastern 2/3 of the fa (especially near the coast) as some redevelopment is possible before the weak cold front crosses the rest of the area. Again, expect more in the way of scattered showers versus widespread rain from thu-fri. Most areas will see measurable rain but ensemble probabilities for >0.5" are only 10-30% on the eps and 30-60% on the GEFS/cmce. Highs remain at least in the low-mid 70S through the end of the week, with dew points potentially rising well into the 60S by late week. Mainly dry weather likely returns on saturday. Another shortwave may move across the area late sunday-monday, but this system will likely be moisture starved as the deeper moisture likely gets shunted offshore after friday's fropa.
There won't be much in the way of appreciable caa behind the front, and above average temperatures may continue through next weekend. There remain no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of canada for the foreseeable future.
As of 1240 AM EST monday...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through monday as high pressure remains centered immediately off the mid- atlantic coast. The wind will be calm to very light through sunrise, and then E to NE 5-10KT during the day today at orf, ecg, and phf, with a light SE wind at ric and sby. Clear outside of sct-bkn clouds aoa 10000 ft agl. There is a low probability of fog at ric/sby/phf late tonight (just beyond the end of the 02/06Z taf period).
Outlook: dry weather and prevailing VFR conditions are expected through at least wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low on coverage and any potential restrictions.
As of 225 AM EST monday...
Key messages:
- sub-sca conditions persist through mid-week before a potential weather system approaches.
A broad area of high pressure remains centered over the region early this morning. NE winds are currently 10 knots or less and will remain so throughout the day today. Seas are 3-4 ft across the nc coastal waters, with 2-3 ft seas to the north. Waves in the bay are around 1 foot. Expect these benign marine conditions to persist through wednesday. Winds will become more easterly on tuesday, but stay ~5-10KT with occasional gusts to 15 KT.
High pressure will slide offshore on wednesday as an area of low pressure and its associated cold front approach from the west. This will shift winds southeasterly beginning thursday, but still remain below sca thresholds. Confidence is currently lower, but this could potentially bring our first brief rain chances in weeks. Additionally, a building swell from the southeast could raise seas into sca range nearshore late this week into next week.