Radar — KEAX
Surface Analysis — Central U.S. (South)
Satellite
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- fog potential tonight into thursday morning, mainly near and north of highway 36
- seasonally hot and humid conditions for areas around/south of missouri river and i-70 through friday. Including highs into the 90S and heat index values into the low 100S possible.
- multiple rounds of showers and storms possible over the weekend.
- cooler, more seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures begin to overspread the region later sunday and into next week. Highs falling into the 70S.
Issued at 317 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
A tale of two regions for the forecast area today. Morning showers and generic thunderstorm activity for much of the area near and north of i-70 has largely subsided and given way to a northward lifting warm front and clearing skies. As such, this yields starkly different days from northern missouri to central missouri. Expect highs underneath areas with lingering cloud cover to struggle to do much more than the upper 70S to low 80S, while areas further south will be dictated by just how much sunshine and mixing depth can be achieved. Given the 850mb warm nose >20 deg c. Initial forecasts suggested the ~90 deg f line to be around the east-west portions of the missouri river. Given recent trends and observations that is more likely to be a tier of counties northward, regardless, cooler north to warm to hot and humid as you work southward across the area today.
Tonight, potential for additional showers and storms has tended to trend northward among the short-term guidance suites. While the surface front may not fully lift out of missouri and into iowa, it should be enough to keep activity into iowa. Storm chances into the overnight will be driven predominantly by llj/isentropic ascent overriding the surface/near-surface front. Even if some activity clips the far northern portions of missouri, the activity should be on the more progressive side with a notable lack of above surface boundary for storms to train along and migrating llj. Most recent cam runs result in initial convection around 06Z near and east of des moines along the i-80 corridor and drifting eastward through the overnight. Did briefly consider lining up with dmx/dvn a new flood watch for tonight, and while much of the area has seen plentiful/saturating rainfall with confidence increasing in the location, have opted against. Otherwise, potential for some fog in the vicinity of the surface front and northward given moist low levels and light to nil winds tonight and have added as much into the forecast.
Thursday sees a surface high drop into the northern plains, which will help retreat the surface boundary back southward. There is some uncertainty in just how far south it will be able to retreat. The 850mb thermal ridge will remain overhead across the area, so the importance of the surface boundary ties to cloud cover and mixing depth potential. In general it will set up another day where northern missouri will feel drastically different than areas near and south of i-70. Northern areas could also see a few showers or general thunder as weak isentropic lift continues as well, but in similar fashion to today should weaken as the day progresses. Concurrent, the large scale pattern begins to see a bit more change as western conus mid-level cutoff low/trough begins to move more inland and a shortwave disturbance lifts out of sonora/mexico.
The waffling surface boundary/warm front will see another northward surge friday as surface low develops and pushes off the colorado front range. By this point the norther plains surface high will have pushed eastward and may keep shower/storm chances ongoing for NE portions of the cwa. This will also again potentially yield a dramatic difference in conditions across the cwa itself. A more active overall pattern for the area then prevails into the weekend...
Issued at 317 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
We could see another opportunity for storms over the weekend as the upper-level trough in the pacific northwest tries to push into our area but it will be fighting the upper-level ridge over the SE US. A surface low over the central plains will bring another cold front to our area but with the battle between the upper-level trough and ridge, that front will potentially stall out over our forecast area bringing the potential for multiple rounds of rain saturday and sunday night. The ridge begins to flatten out early next week and there is high confidence the cold front will move off to the SE on monday with the 25th to 75th percentile ensemble spread indicating high temperatures in the 70S.
Issued at 1247 PM CDT wed sep 16 2026
Showers and clouds are clearing out of the area with VFR conditions returning. Clouds will build back into the area around 0600Z with an advancing cold front but the exact location of the front will determine where the lowest clouds set up and it is possible to see MVFR/IFR conditions, especially in the NW near stj. Stj could also see some fog develop around 0600Z, but that will depend on winds and sky coverage that could limit fog development.
Winds are currently light out of the east but will gradually back towards the north over the forecast period as the front moves through. Again, there is uncertainty just how far south the front will advance and there is chance that the metro sites will not see a wind shift at all.