Radar — KRLX
Surface Analysis — Eastern U.S. (Central)
Satellite
Nearest monitored road: 5th Street (Primary)
1) a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm in the mountains and adjacent foothills today.
2) after a near ideal stretch of weather for late july thursday and friday, more unsettled weather returns for the weekend into early next week.
Key message 1...
High pressure builds in at the surface today with a light northwest flow ushering in a drier, more comfortable airmass over time. However, a deep trough remains carved out aloft, centered over new york and proximity to this low, left over instability and some light upslope flow will allow for isolated to scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm to develop over our northeast counties with quite a bit of diurnal cu and maybe a sprinkle or two to the west.
Key message 2...
High pressure fully builds over the region thursday and friday with temperatures near to slightly below normal along with comfortable dewpoints.
Unsettled weather returns for the weekend, however, as a trough digs into the ohio valley. Confidence is pretty high that showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage by saturday night into sunday. Beyond sunday, models diverge a bit on whether the low will cut off to our west or remain transient. Nbm maintains chance pops both monday and tuesday and that seems reasonable with the uncertainty.
Winds have shifted to the NW with just a few lingering post- frontal showers. It will now be a battle between fog/low clouds wanting to form due to abundant low level moisture and the light northwest wind and gentle mixing which will want to negate that. Kept with the previous shift's ideas of a mixture of fog and low clouds bringing MVFR to IFR conditions for a period of time at all terminals but this could end up being variable with some improvement a bit earlier than you would normally expect due to the drier airmass trying to intrude from the NW.
A stratocu deck will be stubborn today with a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm over the mountains and adjacent foothills. Otherwise, winds will become a bit gusty from the northwest during the afternoon, before settling down again after sundown.
Forecast confidence: medium
Alternate scenarios: fog/low cloud timing and prevalence this morning is the primary limiting factor on forecast confidence.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency of wfo forecast to available model information: h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model. M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models. L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
Date wed 07/29/26 UTC 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 crw consistency h h h h h h l h m l l l hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l bkw consistency h h h h m h h h h h h h ekn consistency h m h h m h m m m m m m pkb consistency h h h h h m h h m m h l ckb consistency h h h h m h h m h h h h
After 06Z thursday...IFR valley fog is likely to develop again late thursday night. IFR possible in showers/storms this weekend.